2025-05-20-Jefferies-2025年5月20日加拿大日报_12页_280kb

Bank Earnings Season: The Canadian banks' second-quarter earnings season begins with TD's report, with analysts focusing on management commentary over actual numbers due to Trump's tariffs.

Loan and Deposit Trends: OSFI data shows March lending volumes decreased 0.9% month-over-month, with commercial loans down 2.8% and residential mortgage loans turning negative. Deposits also fell 1.5% M/M but show year-over-year growth.

Inflation and Macroeconomic Outlook: Inflation is expected to cool to 1.6% in April due to the removal of the consumer carbon price, but trade uncertainty from U.S. tariffs and sanctions risks economic slowdown. Statistics Canada will release CPI data soon.

Economic Risks: Canada's economy faces downward pressure from tariffs on exports like lumber and oil, with China emerging as a key buyer of Canadian crude. Consumer and business sentiment surveys are negative, impacting key data.

Upcoming Events: Key events include IFC's investor day in Toronto, followed by releases of CPI, housing prices, industrial producer prices, and retail sales data. Bank earnings reviews and previews follow in the coming weeks.

Valuations and Ratings: Analysts rate companies like TD and RY as "Buy" with price targets, while others hold steady. TD is a key focus in Q2 earnings. Ratings are based on fundamentals and expected returns.

Disclosures: Numerous analyst certifications and conflicts of interest transparently reported, including compensation ties to investment banking services and reliance on OSFI data. No specific recommendations for all investors.