2025-06-11-Jefferies-每日加拿大人2025年6月11日_14页_290kb

Equity Research: Canada Financials Summary

Date: June 11, 2025

Market Overview:
While Canadian bank loan portfolios remain relatively strong, overall financial sector equities have reached all-time highs. Trading activity on the TSX declined in May (volume down 13%, value down 14%, transactions down 22%) compared to April, despite equity prices hitting records, supporting brokerage commission fees

Key Topics:

• Canadian Banks/Insurers Events: Upcoming corporate sales tours by Jefferies For Clients.
• Macroeconomic Data: April building permits data (expected slight improvement in permits) and pending economic reports (Manufacturing, wholesale, auto sales).
• Business Conditions: Equifax report indicates rising business delinquencies (11% of active businesses missed a payment), especially in consumer-dependent sectors like accommodation & food/services (17% delinquency rates). Lower credit demand observed. Different provinces/sectors show " flashing red" delinquency rates. Stats. Canada shows growing caution across businesses.
• US Trade Impact: Canadian firms exporting/importing face significant pressure due to US tariffs. Over half of US-trade businesses anticipate negative impacts, primarily cost and expense increases; 57% of exporters reported proactive actions against tariffs.
• Travel Trends: Fewer Canadians are taking trips to the US following trade disputes, impacting tourism-related data flows.

Chart Summary:

• Figure 1 & Figure 2: TSX trading metrics show slight fluctuations but overall positive volume trends.
• Figure 3: Provides stock performance data for major financial companies including banks and insurance firms, highlighting price ranges and performance indicators, with a focus on top performers.
• Yield Curves (Figures 4 & 5): Canadian and US yield curve positions (centering around 5% for the short end) require further economic context.
• Upcoming Events (Figure 6): Key upcoming economic data releases focusing on permits, housing starts, and sales activity. Earnings reviews for 2Q25.

Valuation & Recommendations:

• Hold/Buy: TD (Buy), RY (Buy), POW (Buy), MFC (Buy), SLF (Buy), Manulife (Buy), EQB (Buy). goeasy (Buy).
• Hold: Most other banks (BNS, CM, NA, BMO, LB) and insurers.
• Downgrade Potential: Valuation adjustments potentially due to tariff-related risks and credit data concerns.

Noteworthy Changes:

• Equity Research: Canada Financials maintains its upright position regarding equities within the financial services sector in Canada. There is a continued divergence between entities based on recent trends.
• While the stock market registered new heights, internal economic conditions seem to be losing momentum. The unsteady credit data, particularly business payment delinquencies, combined with external pressures and trade tariffs, prevents a widespread confidence surge. However, the sustained buyer presence keeps valuations from declining in the near term.