2018年-OPEC月度石油市场报告_MOMR_20October_202018_107页_2mb

OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report Summary - October 11, 2018

Core Content Overview

The OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) for October 11, 2018, provides an in-depth analysis of the global oil market, including price movements, supply and demand dynamics, economic outlook, and market structure. It also includes a feature article on the winter oil market outlook and the long-term World Oil Outlook 2018.

Main Sections and Key Points

Crude Oil Price Movements

• The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) increased by $4.92, or 6.8%, in September 2018, reaching $77.18/b, the highest since October 2014.
• ICE Brent rose by $5.27 to $79.11/b, up 7.1%.
• DME Oman increased by $6.08, or 8.4%, to $78.75/b.
• NYMEX WTI rose by $2.24, or 3.3%, to $70.08/b.
• Year-to-date (y-t-d), the ORB was up $20.21, or 40.3%, to $70.34/b.
• Brent-WTI spread widened to $9.02/b for the month.
• Speculative net long positions were mixed, with a significant increase in ICE Brent and a decrease in NYMEX WTI.
• Backwardation in the Brent and Dubai markets increased, while WTI backwardation eased due to higher US production.

World Economy

• Global economic growth for 2018 was revised down to 3.7% from 3.8%, mainly due to slowing growth in emerging and developing economies.
• OECD growth for 2018 and 2019 is at 2.9% and 2.5% for the US, 2.0% and 1.9% for the Euro-zone, and 1.1% for Japan.
• Non-OECD growth for 2018 remains at 7.6% for India and 6.6% for China, with projections of 7.4% and 6.2% for 2019.
• Brazil saw a 0.1% revision down to 1.1% in 2018 and 0.2% to 1.8% in 2019.
• Russia's GDP growth forecast remains unchanged at 1.6% in 2018 and 1.7% in 2019.

World Oil Demand

• World oil demand growth in 2018 is estimated at 1.54 mb/d, with a downward revision of 80 tb/d from the previous month.
• Total demand for 2018 is now 98.79 mb/d.
• 2019 demand growth is forecast at 1.36 mb/d, down from 1.54 mb/d, with total demand expected at 100.15 mb/d.
• Demand growth is driven by OECD America and non-OECD regions, particularly India and China.
• OECD demand is forecast to grow by 0.25 mb/d, while non-OECD demand is expected to increase by 1.11 mb/d.

World Oil Supply

• Non-OPEC supply growth in 2018 is estimated at 2.22 mb/d, up from the previous month's 2.02 mb/d.
• US, Canada, Kazakhstan, and Brazil are the main growth drivers, while Mexico, Norway, Indonesia, and Vietnam show declines.
• Non-OPEC supply for 2018 is estimated at 59.77 mb/d.
• Non-OPEC supply growth for 2019 is forecast at 2.12 mb/d, a downward revision of 0.03 mb/d from the previous month.
• OPEC NGLs are expected to grow by 0.12 mb/d in 2018 and 0.11 mb/d in 2019, averaging 6.36 mb/d and 6.47 mb/d.
• OPEC crude production in September increased by 132 tb/d to average 32.76 mb/d.

Product Markets and Refinery Operations

• Refinery margins weakened in all main trading hubs due to falling demand and peak maintenance season.
• US product inventories remained high due to strong refinery runs, contributing to bearish sentiment.
• European product markets were pressured by gasoline, naphtha, and fuel oil weakness, along with high feedstock costs.
• Asian product markets saw some support from rising retail fuel prices due to a tightening gasoil market.
• OECD commercial product stocks were 41 mb below the seasonal average in September.

Winter Oil Market Outlook

• The winter season typically sees increased diesel demand, especially in the northern hemisphere, making product markets more vulnerable.
• European diesel demand has weakened due to the 2015 diesel emissions controversy and higher global oil prices.
• US diesel demand remains strong due to healthy economic activity, including manufacturing, construction, and freight.
• Non-OECD countries, particularly China and India, are expected to see positive GDP growth driving product demand.
• Refining capacity limitations in Latin America and Africa are likely to increase product imports, supporting gasoline and middle distillate crack spreads.
• Currency weakness and subsidy reductions in some emerging markets may negatively impact product demand in the coming months.

World Oil Outlook 2018

• The World Oil Outlook 2018 outlines OPEC's vision of the global energy landscape through 2040.
• Total primary energy demand is projected to increase by 91 mboe/d, or 33%, between 2015 and 2040, reaching 365 mboe/d.
• Developing countries account for 95% of this growth, with Asia as the largest contributor, and Africa playing an increasing role.
• Natural gas is expected to grow the most in absolute terms, while renewables grow the most in percentage terms.
• Oil demand is forecast to rise to 111.7 mb/d in 2040, up from 98.79 mb/d in 2018.
• Non-OPEC supply is projected to increase by 9 mb/d to 67 mb/d by 2027, with US tight oil as the main driver.
• OPEC crude demand is expected to grow to 32.7 mb/d in 2018, down from 33.5 mb/d in 2017.
• OPEC crude demand for 2019 is forecast at 31.8 mb/d, 0.9 mb/d lower than 2018.
• OPEC crude share in global oil supply is expected to increase from 34% in 2018 to 36% in 2040.

Key Contributors and Analysts

• Editor-in-Chief: Dr. Ayed S. Al-Qahtani
• Editor: Behrooz Baikalizadeh
• Analysts:
  • Crude Oil Price Movements
  • Commodity Markets
  • World Economy
  • World Oil Demand
  • World Oil Supply
  • Product Markets and Refinery Operations
  • Tanker Market and Oil Trade
  • Stock Movements
• Technical Team:
  • Yacine Sariahmed
  • Hector Hurtado
  • Afshin Javan
  • Imad Al-Khayyat
  • Joerg Spitzy
  • Hassan Balfakeih
  • Mohammad Ali Danesh
  • Tona Ndamba
  • Anisah Almadhayyan
  • Aziz Yahyai
  • Nadir Guerer
  • Viveca Hameder

Disclaimer and Copyright

• The MOMR is for informational purposes only and does not replace professional advice.
• OPEC reserves all rights to the publication, including reproduction and distribution.
• Unauthorized use of third-party material is not permitted.

Summary of Key Trends

• Crude oil prices rose sharply in September due to geopolitical tensions, supply concerns, and low US inventories.
• Non-OPEC supply is expected to grow in 2018 and 2019, with US tight oil as a key driver.
• OPEC crude demand decreased slightly in 2018 and is forecast to continue the trend in 2019.
• Winter demand for diesel is expected to be strong, but product markets face challenges due to refining capacity issues and currency weakness.
• Long-term outlook shows increased oil demand and OPEC's growing share in the global oil supply.