2025-06-16-KROLL-全球石油和天然气并购展望——2025年第一季度（英）_36页_4mb

Global Oil and Gas M&A Outlook for Q1 2025

Market Overview

In Q1 2025, global oil and gas mergers and acquisitions (M&A) activity declined significantly, with 104 announced deals totaling $45.6 billion in disclosed value—representing a 31% decrease in deal count and a 56% reduction in value compared to Q4 2024. This slowdown stemmed primarily from market volatility and reduced investor confidence, driven by shifts in commercial policies. North America led with 46.6% of all deals and 77.9% of the total value, concentrated in the U.S., which accounted for 38.5% of deals and 77.6% of the value.

Key Trends and Developments

• LNG Market Growth: Demand surged in Q1 2025 due to European supply cuts from Russia, rising LNG exports from the U.S. (up 9.7% year-over-year), and new export capacity expansions, enabling U.S. LNG to potentially double by 2028. Australia and Qatar maintained dominance in Asia, emphasizing the U.S.'s strategic role in diversifying energy supplies.
• Commodity Prices: Prices experienced volatility, with oil benchmarks showing slight increases year-over-quarter for some indices, while natural gas benchmarks like Henry Hub rose sharply (13.4% quarter-on-quarter). Refined products saw increases, influenced by geopolitical factors and extreme weather.
• Economic Factors: U.S. economic indicators showed weak GDP growth and stabilization of inflation at 2.4%, prompting the Federal Reserve to maintain its benchmark rate at 4.5%. In contrast, the ECB reduced rates by 50 basis points, supporting market recovery and equity performance, particularly in Europe where indices like the MSCI Europe rose 9.9%.
• Deal Activity Shifts: Upstream and midstream segments saw reductions in deal volume and value, while downstream activity benefited from megadeals, including ADNOC's $13.4 billion acquisition of Nova Chemicals and Whitecap Resources' $6.4 billion deal with Veren Inc.

Regional and Subsector Insights

• North America: Remained highly active, accounting for 98% of megadeals ($35.6 billion disclosed value), driven by acquisitions in upstream and midstream segments, such as those involving Permian assets.
• Europe: Showed signs of capital market strength, with policy shifts supporting eurozone economic recovery, though deal volumes were lower compared to North America.

Market Statistics

• QoQ deal numbers decreased by 31%, while the disclosed value dropped by 56%, reflecting cautious corporate strategies focused on cash flow optimization and portfolio adjustments.
• The U.S. administration's support for LNG export permitting lifted moratoria, accelerating market expansion and investment.

Corporate Actions and Valuation

• Top megadeals included ADNOC's acquisitions and U.S. transactions, reshaping the competitive landscape.
• Valuation metrics, such as EV/EBITDA and EBITDA margins, varied across subsectors, with oilfield services companies showing moderate declines in share prices amid operational challenges.