20140804-富瑞金融香港公司-Today_At_A_Glance_14页_341kb
报告摘要
Asia Research Summary
Key Takeaways from the Week (24 to 30 July)
- Mutual Fund/ETF Inflows: There was a strong injection of US$11bn into equities, marking a six-week high. This included US$4.1bn into Asia Pacific and US$813mn into Latin America, both reaching 15-week and 46-week highs respectively.
- Regional Performance: Asia has seen net mutual fund/ETF inflows for eight consecutive weeks, and foreign investors have been net buyers for 12 weeks.
- Sector Trends: All sectors except for Industrials attracted net inflows. Global bond funds had a net inflow of US$2.1bn, with inflows continuing for 20 out of the past 21 weeks.
- Market Outlook: North America saw a return of inflows, while Developed Europe experienced withdrawals. The market is expected to stabilize in August, with opportunities for new launches in the coming year.
Company Analysis
Kulim(M) Berhad (KUL MK)
- Rating: Hold
- Price Target: MYR3.00 to MYR3.40
- Key Points: The company upgraded its rating from Sell to Hold. The successful disposal of its 49% stake in NBPO could serve as a catalyst for re-rating, though the deal depends on PNG government clearance.
China Taiping Insurance Holdings (966 HK)
- Rating: Buy
- Price Target: HK$15.50 to HK$20.00
- Key Points: 1H14 operating data was stronger than expected. The NBV growth forecast was revised up to 17.5%, and EV growth to 19.5%. The price target was raised to HK$20.
Prestige Estates Projects Ltd. (PEPL IN)
- Rating: Buy
- Price Target: INR240.00 to INR290.00
- Key Points: Q1FY15 results were strong, with net income up 20% YoY and presales reaching an all-time high of Rs13.1bn. The company is on track to meet FY15 guidance.
Titan Company (TTAN IN)
- Rating: Buy
- Price Target: INR355.00 to INR372.00
- Key Points: 1Q15 results were ahead of expectations. Near-term volatility is expected due to regulatory changes, but medium-term prospects are positive.
China Overseas Land & Investment (688 HK)
- Rating: Buy
- Price Target: HK$27.10
- Key Points: The company's upside is not limited to macro support or policy easing. It is expected to benefit from a strong land bank and financial foundation, with growth potential in the uncertain market.
HC International (8292 HK)
- Rating: Buy
- Price Target: HK$24.86
- Key Points: 1H14 profit growth exceeded expectations. The company is well positioned to benefit from a shift in the market, and we maintain the Buy rating.
Astellas Pharma (4503 JP)
- Rating: Buy
- Price Target: ¥2,000
- Key Points: 1QFY15 results were solid, with the company on track to meet full-year guidance. The stock trades at an attractive valuation.
Takeda Pharmaceutical Co. (4502 JP)
- Rating: Hold
- Price Target: ¥5,200
- Key Points: 1QFY15 results were unexciting, with poor progress to full-year guidance. The company needs pipeline improvements and better performance in "Project Summit" to become more positive.
Eisai (4523 JP)
- Rating: Underperform
- Price Target: ¥2,500
- Key Points: 1QFY15 results were poor, with a 23.5% sales progress and 16% OP progress. Domestic sales of Aricept were weak, and the gross margin deteriorated by 6%. Premium valuation is not justified.
Sharp (6753 JP)
- Rating: Underperform
- Price Target: ¥230
- Key Points: Sharp reported an operating loss despite a one-off gain. The company's D/E ratio remains elevated at 3.7x, and it needs to raise capital. The Underperform rating is reiterated.
Net One Systems (7518 JP)
- Rating: Hold
- Price Target: ¥680
- Key Points: Q1FY14 results were disappointing due to restructuring and sluggish earnings growth. The company is expected to catch up in H2.
GMO Internet Inc. (9449 JP)
- Rating: Buy
- Price Target: ¥1,500
- Key Points: Q2 results were slightly negative, but the company is expected to harvest results from H2. Mobile games are starting to break even.
Otsuka Corporation (4768 JP)
- Rating: Buy
- Price Target: ¥5,167
- Key Points: H1FY15 results were positive, with improved margins and cost management. The company is preparing for upcoming catalysts like Windows 2003 Server licensing expiration and tax events.
JSW Steel Ltd (JSTL IN)
- Rating: Buy
- Price Target: INR1,406.00
- Key Points: Q1FY15 results showed improved margins and positive realisations. EBITDA/tonne improved, and we maintain the Buy rating.
DLF Limited (DLFU IN)
- Rating: Underperform
- Price Target: INR140.00
- Key Points: Q1FY15 cash flow worsened, with operating cash flow at a deficit and presales at a five-year low. The company is expected to raise equity and manage CCPS conversion.
DBS Group Holdings Ltd. (DBS SP)
- Rating: Buy
- Price Target: SGD19.15
- Key Points: 2Q net income exceeded expectations. China tailwinds are expected in 2H, and the company is re-rated as a Buy due to potential rate hikes and improved performance.
Lotte Chemical (011170 KS)
- Rating: Buy
- Price Target: KRW270,000
- Key Points: 2Q14 results were in line with expectations. The company is expected to benefit from continued strong ethylene chain margins in 2015 and 2016.
Hana Tour (039130 KS)
- Rating: Buy
- Price Target: KRW84,000
- Key Points: 2Q results were in line with expectations. The company is well positioned for a recovery in the outbound tour market and is recommended for accumulation.
Events and Conferences
- Jefferies Boston Healthcare Summit: 8/6/2014, Boston
- Jefferies Global Industrials Conference: 8/11/2014 - 8/14/2014, New York
- ASEAN Urbanization & Demography Corporate Access Day - Hong Kong: 8/26/2014, Hong Kong
- Jefferies Semiconductors, Hardware & Communications Infrastructure Summit: 8/27/2014, Chicago
- Jefferies Mid-Atlantic Corporate Access Day: 9/5/2014, Baltimore
- Jefferies West Coast Payments Summit: 9/22/2014 - 9/23/2014, Half Moon Bay
- Jefferies Global Healthcare Conference in London: 11/19/2014 - 11/20/2014, London
Company Marketing
- Countrywide PLC (CWD LN): 8/4/2014 - 8/7/2014, London
- Senior PLC (SNR LN): 8/4/2014 - 8/8/2014, Edinburgh, London
- Keller Group PLC (KLR LN): 8/4/2014 - 8/8/2014, London
- WPP PLC (WPP LN): 8/4/2014 - 8/7/2014, Atlanta, Austin, Los Angeles, Newport Beach, Orlando, Santa Barbara
- Fidessa Group PLC (FDSA LN): 8/4/2014 - 8/7/2014, London
Summary
- Positive Trends: Strong mutual fund inflows into Asia and Latin America, positive Q1 results for several companies, and the expectation of recovery in certain sectors.
- Negative Trends: Poor performance in some sectors, such as gaming and property, and continued challenges for companies like DLF and Sharp.
- Recommendations: Buy ratings for several companies including Ourgame, HC International, Astellas, and Takeda, while Underperform ratings are given to Eisai and DLF.
- Market Outlook: The Asian market is expected to stabilize in August, with potential for growth in the coming year, especially in sectors like gaming and property.
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