2012年-WEF世界经济论坛_World_Economic_Forum_–_Global_Risks_2013_Eighth_Edition_80页_11mb

Summary of Global Risks 2013

Core Content

The Global Risks 2013 report, now in its eighth edition, is a flagship publication of the World Economic Forum's Risk Response Network. It provides an analysis of global risks based on a survey of over 1,000 experts from various sectors, including industry, government, academia, and civil society. The report emphasizes the concept of resilience, particularly in the context of global systems that are increasingly interdependent and complex.

Main Points

• Global Risks are Interconnected and Interdependent: Risks such as climate change, economic instability, and technological advancements do not exist in isolation. They affect each other and require cross-border collaboration to manage effectively.

• Resilience is Key: The report highlights the importance of building national resilience through the lens of five components: robustness, redundancy, resourcefulness, response, and recovery. These are applied to five subsystems: economic, environmental, governance, infrastructure, and social.

• Top Global Risks by Likelihood and Impact:

  • Most Likely: Severe income disparity
  • Highest Impact: Major systemic financial failure
  • Top Five by Likelihood: Chronic fiscal imbalances, water supply crisis, etc.
  • Top Five by Impact: Major systemic financial failure, failure of climate change adaptation, etc.

• Key Changes in Risk Perceptions:

  • Unforeseen consequences of life science technologies was the biggest mover in likelihood.
  • Unforeseen negative consequences of regulation moved the most on the impact scale compared to last year.

Risk Cases

The report presents three in-depth risk cases based on survey data and expert analysis:

1. Testing Economic and Environmental Resilience

   • Economic and environmental systems are under simultaneous stress, potentially leading to a "perfect global storm."
   • Global resilience is tested by monetary and fiscal policies on the economic front, and by rising temperatures and extreme weather events on the environmental front.
   • The report suggests that addressing both systems requires strategic investments and a shift in focus from short-term economic gains to long-term sustainability.

2. Digital Wildfires in a Hyperconnected World

   • The rapid spread of information through social media can lead to misinformation and panic, akin to the 1938 War of the Worlds incident.
   • The report explores the need for an ethos of responsibility and healthy skepticism among social media users and creators to mitigate the risk of digital wildfires.

3. The Dangers of Hubris on Human Health

   • The overuse of antibiotics has led to the emergence of resistant bacteria, posing a significant threat to global health.
   • The report questions whether new antibiotics can be developed fast enough to counteract resistant mutations, and highlights the need for innovation and alignment of incentives to prevent misuse.

X Factors

The report introduces X Factors, which are emerging concerns not yet widely recognized by decision-makers. These include:

• Runaway climate change: Could the Earth's atmosphere be tipping into an inhospitable state?
• Significant cognitive enhancement: Ethical dilemmas in neural enhancement could affect daily life and even military applications.
• Rogue deployment of geoengineering: The potential for unilateral use of climate manipulation technologies.
• Costs of living longer: Medical advances may increase the financial burden of long-term care for the elderly.
• Discovery of alien life: Could this challenge human belief systems and have profound psychological effects?

Methodology and Collaboration

• The report is based on the Global Risks Perception Survey, which includes a new question on national resilience.
• The methodology was updated in 2012, introducing a network diagram to show the interconnections between risks.
• The report is developed in collaboration with academic institutions and scientific journals, such as Nature, to ensure a multidisciplinary approach.

Special Report on National Resilience

• The Special Report introduces a framework for assessing national resilience to global risks.
• It explores the use of qualitative and quantitative indicators to evaluate resilience across different subsystems.
• A new initiative, the Resilience Practices Exchange, is launched to help leaders build resilience using social enterprise technology.

Conclusion

• The report underscores the need for cross-border collaboration, systemic thinking, and strategic investment to manage global risks.
• It calls for a shift in focus from short-term economic policies to long-term resilience-building efforts.
• The report challenges global leaders to rethink their approach to risk management in light of the growing complexity and interconnectedness of the modern world.

Key Information

• Global Risks Perception Survey: Conducted in September 2012, with over 1,000 experts participating.
• Risk Categories: Economic, environmental, geopolitical, societal, and technological.
• Resilience Framework: Five components applied to five subsystems to assess national resilience.
• Interim Study: To be published this summer, offering insights into the development of a national resilience measurement system.
• Partners: The report is produced in collaboration with Marsh & McLennan Companies, National University of Singapore, Oxford Martin School, Swiss Reinsurance Company, Wharton Center for Risk Management, and Zurich Insurance Group.

Appendices

• Appendix 1: Details the survey methodology and questions.
• Appendix 2: Explains the likelihood and impact ratings used in the report.
• Appendix 3: Provides an overview of the concept of resilience and its application in risk management.
• Acknowledgements: Recognizes the contributions of various stakeholders and partners.
• Project Team: Lists the individuals and organizations involved in the report's development.