【国际能源署IEA】2024年上半年全球电力报告_52页_3mb

Electricity Mid-Year Update Summary (July 2024)

Core Content

This report from the International Energy Agency (IEA) provides an overview of global electricity demand and supply trends from 2023 to 2025. It highlights the impact of economic activity, extreme weather events, and the increasing role of digitalisation and renewable energy on electricity markets and emissions.

Main Viewpoints

Global Electricity Demand Growth

• Robust growth: Electricity demand is growing faster in 2024 and 2025 than in previous years, driven by strong economic activity, intense heatwaves, and continued electrification.
• Fastest growth since 2007: The 4% growth in 2024 is the highest since 2007, excluding the sharp rebounds in 2010 and 2021.
• Outpace GDP growth: Electricity demand growth is projected to exceed global GDP growth (3.2%) in both 2024 and 2025.
• Key drivers: Increased demand for cooling, expansion of data centres, and growth in EV and solar PV production are major contributors.

Regional Electricity Demand Trends

• China: Electricity demand is expected to grow by 6.5% in 2024, slightly slowing from 7% in 2023. The country continues to add electricity demand equivalent to that of Germany each year.
• India: Electricity demand is forecast to rise by 8.5% in H1 2024, driven by economic growth and extreme heatwaves. Growth is expected to moderate to 6.8% in 2025 under normal weather conditions.
• United States: After a 1.6% decline in 2023, electricity demand is projected to grow by 3% in 2024 and 1.9% in 2025, supported by improved GDP outlook and rising air conditioning use.
• European Union: Electricity demand is recovering, with a 1% increase in H1 2024 and a forecast of 1.7% growth for 2024 and 2.6% for 2025. However, uncertainty remains due to macroeconomic conditions and energy price levels.

Impact of Heatwaves

• Global impact: Heatwaves in 2024 significantly increased electricity demand, especially for cooling, and strained power systems.
• Record temperatures: May 2024 was the hottest month on record, with temperatures 1.32°C above the 1901-2000 average.
• Key affected regions: India, Mexico, the United States, and others experienced extreme heat, leading to blackouts and high peak loads. For example, Texas saw a peak demand of 77 GW, a 13% increase from May 2023.

Key Information

Renewable Energy and Emissions

• Renewables set to overtake coal: Renewable energy generation (solar PV and wind) is expected to surpass coal-fired generation by 2025, with a projected 30% share of renewables in global electricity supply by 2025.
• Clean energy growth: Solar PV and wind are driving the transition, with solar PV alone expected to meet about half of the global electricity demand growth through 2025.
• Nuclear growth: Global nuclear generation is projected to reach a new high in 2025, surpassing its 2021 record. This is supported by increased output in France, restarted reactors in Japan, and new reactors coming online in various markets.
• Emissions plateau: Power sector CO₂ emissions are expected to remain broadly stable through 2025, with a slight increase in 2024 followed by a modest decline in 2025 due to the expansion of clean energy and continued decline in oil-fired generation.

Negative Electricity Prices

• Rising frequency: Negative electricity prices are becoming more common in several regions, indicating a lack of flexibility in supply and demand, and insufficient storage capacity.
• Implications: This trend signals the urgent need for greater system flexibility, including demand response and storage solutions, to manage the volatility in power markets.

Industry and Market Developments

• Restarting operations: Several energy-intensive industries in the EU have resumed or increased production as energy prices stabilised, though some remain under pressure due to high costs.
• Digitalisation impact: The rise of AI is driving increased electricity use in data centres, highlighting the need for better data collection and analysis in this sector.
• Market price divergence: Electricity prices continue to vary significantly across regions, with gas prices driving higher prices in Europe and more stable prices in the US.

Conclusion

The report outlines a period of strong electricity demand growth in 2024 and 2025, driven by economic recovery, heatwaves, and digitalisation. Renewable energy is on the rise, with solar PV and wind expected to surpass coal generation by 2025. However, emissions are expected to remain stable due to the continued expansion of clean energy sources and the structural shift away from fossil fuels. The increasing frequency of negative electricity prices highlights the need for more flexible power systems and market designs.