国际能源署-电力2025年-2027年的分析和预测（英）_200页_6mb

Electricity 2025: Key Summary

Demand and Growth

• Global electricity demand is projected to reach a historic high, increasing from 29,038 TWh in 2024 to 32,542 TWh by 2027, averaging 3.7% growth per year from 2025.
  • Emerging economies will account for 85% of this growth, led by China and India.
  • Advanced economies reversed a 15-year decline in demand due to electrification and economic recovery.
• China's demand is growing 6% YoY despite slower GDP growth, driven by industrial electrification and new energy products.
• India's demand is forecast at 6.3% annual growth, significantly higher than the US at 2%.
• Weather events like heatwaves and droughts are worsening grid stress in many regions.
  • Australia's grid faced major challenges from storms and droughts in 2024.

Supply and Clean Energy

• Renewables will dominate growth in electricity supply, accounting for 85% of growth through 2027.
• Solar PV is the fastest-growing source globally, averaging:
  • 20-30% annual growth in Europe
  • 22-25% annual growth in Asia-Pacific
  • 23-40% annual growth in the Middle East

Flexibility and Grid Management

• Variable Renewable Energy (VRE) droughts are increasing stress on grids worldwide.
  • Events like "Dunkelflaute" in Northern Europe caused negative pricing and grid challenges.
• Battery storage deployment is accelerating globally:
  • Australia led with 3 GW installed capacity
  • California is experiencing rapid growth
• Clean energy technologies require enhanced grid flexibility, with demand-side response and interconnections becoming crucial.

Pricing and Policy

• Wholesale electricity prices declined globally in 2024, but regional variations remain significant.
• Grid tariffs are rising in many regions due to infrastructure expansion and digitization costs:
  • US transmission costs increased by up to 50%
  • European industrial tariffs saw sharp increases
• Negative pricing events are becoming more common, signalling the need for more grid flexibility.

Key Conclusions

• The new era of electricity requires greater focus on system security and resilience.
• Policies supporting electrification and clean energy must address grid integration challenges.
• International cooperation is essential for managing cross-border electricity trade and resource adequacy.

This summary is based on the IEA's comprehensive analysis, capturing the most significant trends and policy implications for the global electricity sector from 2024 to 2027.