2025-02-23-IEA-电力2025年-2027年的分析和预测（英）_200页_7mb

2025 Electricity Report Summary

Core Content

The IEA Electricity 2025 report provides an analysis and forecast of electricity demand, supply, emissions and pricing trends from 2025 to 2027. It highlights the global shift toward electrification and the increasing role of renewable energy in meeting growing electricity needs. The report also examines challenges such as weather-related disruptions, the need for system flexibility, and the evolving electricity landscape in key regions.

Main Viewpoints

• Global Electricity Demand Growth
  Electricity demand is expected to grow at the fastest rate in years, reaching a 4.3% increase in 2024 and continuing at close to 4% through 2027.

  • Over the next three years, global electricity consumption is projected to rise by 3500 TWh, equivalent to the annual electricity use of Japan.
  • The growth rate in 2024 is a sharp acceleration from the 2.5% increase in 2023, which was tempered by declines in advanced economies.

• Emerging and Developing Economies as Main Drivers

  • Emerging economies are expected to account for 85% of global electricity demand growth through 2027.
  • China is the largest contributor, responsible for over 54% of global demand growth in 2024 and more than half of the gains by 2027.
  • China's electricity demand is forecast to grow at an average of 6% annually, outpacing its GDP growth.
  • India and Southeast Asian countries are also expected to see strong demand growth, supported by economic expansion and rising air conditioner ownership.
  • Africa remains a laggard, with 600 million people in sub-Saharan Africa lacking reliable electricity access, hindering economic growth.

• Electrification Across Sectors

  • Electrification is accelerating in China, where electricity accounts for 28% of final energy consumption, compared to 22% in the US and 21% in the EU.
  • The industrial sector is the main driver of electricity demand growth, especially due to the manufacturing of solar PV modules, batteries and electric vehicles.
  • Data centres and 5G networks are also significant contributors to electricity demand in China, with consumption potentially doubling by 2027.
  • In the US, the data centre sector is a key driver of demand growth, while in the EU, the recovery of energy-intensive industries and the impact of heat pumps and electric vehicles are central to the forecast.

• Electricity Supply Trends

  • Renewables are expected to meet 95% of global electricity demand growth through 2027, with solar PV and wind playing a dominant role.
  • Solar PV is forecast to meet ~50% of global demand growth by 2027, up from 40% in 2024.
  • Nuclear power is also growing, driven by France, Japan, and new reactors in China, India, Korea, and other countries.
  • Coal is expected to see a decline in share, with its global share dropping below 33% for the first time this century.

• Emissions Trends

  • CO₂ emissions from electricity generation are expected to plateau after rising by 1% in 2024, due to the increasing use of renewables and the leveling off of fossil fuel generation.
  • Coal emissions are expected to stagnate over the forecast period, with India and Southeast Asia offsetting the declines in the EU and US.
  • The expansion of low-emission sources will significantly reduce the environmental impact of electricity generation.

• Wholesale Electricity Prices

  • Prices in the EU, India, UK and US fell by around 20% in 2024, aligned with global energy commodity price trends.
  • Negative wholesale prices are becoming more common in some markets, indicating a need for more system flexibility.
  • Dunkelflaute events (periods of low renewable generation) have caused price spikes but were managed effectively without disrupting supply.

• Reliability and Security

  • Extreme weather events such as storms, droughts and heatwaves are increasingly impacting power systems.
  • Weather-dependent generation is becoming more prevalent, requiring greater flexibility in supply and demand, storage solutions, and interconnections.
  • Resource adequacy planning is becoming essential to ensure that power systems can handle the unpredictability of weather-related disruptions.

Key Information

• China is the largest contributor to global electricity demand growth, with a share of over 54% in 2024 and more than half of the gains by 2027.
• India is expected to account for 10% of the total increase in global demand by 2027.
• Renewables (solar, wind, hydropower, and nuclear) will meet ~95% of global electricity demand growth by 2027, with solar PV contributing around 50%.
• Negative wholesale prices indicate a need for more system flexibility, as seen in regions like Victoria (Australia), Southern California (US), and European countries.
• Global electricity demand is expected to increase by 3500 TWh over 2025-2027, with China and India leading the way.
• Advanced economies are expected to see a return to rising electricity demand, reversing a 15-year decline, with US and EU being key players.
• Weather-related disruptions are becoming more frequent and severe, emphasizing the need for increased resilience and flexibility in power systems.
• CO₂ emissions from electricity generation are expected to plateau at ~13800 million tonnes in 2024, with the EU and US seeing declines while India and Southeast Asia see increases.

Key Regions and Trends

Conclusion

The Age of Electricity is underway, marked by strong demand growth, increasing electrification, and the dominance of renewables in the energy mix. While China and India are leading the charge, advanced economies are also experiencing a resurgence in electricity demand. The report underscores the importance of system flexibility, reliability, and resource adequacy planning in the face of weather-related disruptions and market volatility. With negative prices and Dunkelflaute events becoming more frequent, the energy transition is accelerating, but challenges remain in ensuring a secure, resilient, and sustainable electricity supply.