【iea】2024年年中电力报告_52页_4mb

Electricity Mid-Year Update Summary (July 2024)

Core Content Overview

This document provides an analysis of global electricity trends from January to June 2024, including demand, supply, emissions, and pricing developments. It also forecasts electricity demand and supply for 2024 and 2025, highlighting key drivers and challenges in major markets such as China, the United States, the European Union, and India.

Main Trends and Forecasts

Electricity Demand

• Global Growth: Electricity demand is projected to grow at the fastest pace since 2007 (4% in 2024 and 4% in 2025), outpacing global GDP growth (3.2%).
• China: Expected to grow by 6.5% in 2024, with a slowdown to 6.2% in 2025. The growth is driven by EV and solar PV production, 5G expansion, and data centres.
• India: Electricity demand surged by 8.5% in H1 2024 due to strong economic activity and heatwaves. Growth is expected to moderate to 6.8% in 2025.
• United States: Demand rebounded by 3.8% in H1 2024, up from a 1.6% decline in 2023. Growth is projected at 3% in 2024 and 1.9% in 2025.
• European Union: Demand is recovering, with a 1% increase in H1 2024. Full-year growth is forecast at 1.7% in 2024 and 2.6% in 2025. However, uncertainty remains due to macroeconomic conditions and energy price levels.

Supply and Generation

• Renewables Growth: Solar PV and wind are expected to surpass hydropower in 2024, and renewables will overtake coal-fired generation by 2025.
• EU Renewable Share: Wind and solar PV are projected to account for 30% of total electricity supply in 2024, rising to 33% in 2025. The share of all renewables is expected to reach 50% in 2024.
• Nuclear Growth: Global nuclear generation is forecast to rise by 1.6% in 2024 and 3.5% in 2025, supported by increased output in France, restarted reactors in Japan, and new reactors in China, India, and Europe.
• Fossil Fuel Trends: Fossil-fired generation fell in the EU but rose in India, China, and the US. Coal-fired generation is expected to increase in 2024 due to high demand, but may decline in 2025 if hydropower trends improve.

Emissions

• CO₂ Emissions: Power sector emissions are expected to plateau in 2024 and decline slightly in 2025, driven by the expansion of renewables and a decline in oil-fired generation.
• Regional Variations:
  • EU: Emissions are projected to decline in 2025 due to reduced coal use and increased renewable adoption.
  • US: Emissions will rise in 2024 before falling in 2025, as coal and gas generation increase in 2024.
  • India: Emissions are expected to rise due to increased coal use, but will be offset by renewable expansion.

Pricing

• Wholesale Prices: Prices continue to diverge across regions.
  • Europe: Gas prices remain high, driving electricity costs.
  • US: Markets remain stable.
• Negative Prices: The frequency of negative electricity prices is increasing in several regions, indicating a lack of system flexibility and the need for better demand response and storage solutions.

Key Drivers of Demand and Supply

• Economic Activity: Strong growth in China, India, and the US is a major driver of electricity demand.
• Heatwaves: Record-breaking heatwaves in 2024 significantly increased cooling demand, straining power systems globally.
• Electrification: Continued expansion of electric vehicles, 5G networks, and data centres is boosting electricity use.
• Energy Transition: The global shift to renewables is accelerating, with solar PV and wind leading the way.

Challenges and Outlook

• Energy Price Volatility: High prices compared to pre-Covid levels are still affecting industries, especially in the EU.
• Industrial Recovery: Energy-intensive industries are gradually restarting operations, but remain vulnerable to market pressures.
• System Flexibility: The increasing frequency of negative electricity prices signals the urgent need for greater flexibility in power systems through better market design and storage capacity.

Conclusion

The report highlights a global trend of rising electricity demand driven by economic recovery, climate change, and digitalisation. Renewable energy is set to dominate the supply mix by 2025, but the transition is not without challenges. The power sector's emissions are expected to remain stable or decline slightly, depending on the region, with a continued focus on reducing reliance on fossil fuels and improving system flexibility.