穆迪-2019年展望_：全球信贷状况在增长放缓和风险上升的情况下走弱（英文）-2018.11.12-23页_2mb

Moody's 2019 Outlook Summary

Core Content

Moody's 2019 Outlook highlights the weakening of global credit conditions amid slowing economic growth and rising risks. The report outlines six key themes that will shape credit conditions in 2019: Growth, Trade Tensions, Financial Stability, Political Risks, ESG Risks, and Technology and Innovation. These themes are interrelated and will impact various sectors and regions differently.

Main Themes and Key Points

1. Global Economic Growth Will Decelerate

• Economic growth is expected to slow in both advanced and emerging market economies.
• Advanced economies will grow at around 1.9% in 2019, down from 2.3% in 2018.
• Emerging market growth is projected to decelerate to 4.6% in 2019, from 5.0% in 2018.
• The slowdown is driven by tightening monetary policy, worsening trade disputes, and reduced demand from China.
• Inflation is rising, which will increase funding costs and liquidity pressures.

2. Trade Tensions Will Escalate

• US-China trade tensions are expected to intensify, affecting global supply chains and investment decisions.
• Trade disputes could derail the global economy and lead to shifts in trade flows and supply chain strategies.
• The auto sector and economies reliant on auto manufacturing, such as the US, Germany, and Japan, are particularly vulnerable.

3. Financial Stability Will Remain a Key Concern

• Tightening global financial conditions will increase funding costs and reduce liquidity.
• Corporate debt levels are high, and weakening covenants increase late-cycle risks.
• Global debt has reached $247 trillion, with nonfinancial corporate debt being a major contributor.
• Financial market volatility is likely to rise, impacting structured finance products and collateral performance.

4. Political and Geopolitical Risks Will Pose the Greatest Uncertainty

• Rising geopolitical tensions, especially between the US and China, will have far-reaching implications.
• The risk of a no-deal Brexit is increasing, with potential impacts on the UK’s financial and industrial sectors.
• Political instability in countries like Italy, Argentina, and Turkey will affect credit conditions.
• Migration and immigration policies are also political risk factors.

5. ESG Risks Will Gain Prominence

• Carbon transition risk is the most significant ESG risk for 2019, affecting credit profiles.
• Social issues, including rising income inequality, will influence political polarization and policy changes.
• ESG considerations will increasingly shape credit assessments and investment strategies.

6. Technology and Innovation Will Reshape the Credit Landscape

• Advances in digital technology are expected to drive productivity but also create business disruptions.
• Cyber risks and data privacy concerns will add to operational and reputational risks.
• The ability of entities to adapt to technological changes and manage climate-related risks will be critical to credit prospects.

Key Information

• Credit Conditions: Will weaken in 2019 due to slower growth, higher funding costs, and tighter liquidity.
• Monetary Policy: The US Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates to 3.5% by the end of 2019, while the ECB and BoJ will likely maintain accommodative policies.
• Emerging Markets: Will face heightened vulnerability due to tightening liquidity, currency pressures, and reliance on external financing.
• Corporate Leverage: Corporate debt levels are at historical highs, with weak covenants increasing default risks.
• Sovereign and Sub-sovereign Risks: Sovereigns with high debt and low fiscal buffers are at risk, particularly in emerging markets.
• Brexit Impact: A no-deal Brexit could significantly disrupt the UK's financial and industrial sectors, increasing credit risks and affecting investment and trade.
• Global Debt Levels: Total global debt is at $247 trillion, with nonfinancial corporate debt being a major component.
• Market Volatility: Financial market volatility is expected to return, affecting liquidity and investment strategies.

Conclusion

The 2019 credit outlook is shaped by a combination of slowing growth, tightening financial conditions, and rising geopolitical and political uncertainties. These factors will create challenges for both governments and businesses, particularly in emerging markets and sectors exposed to trade and technology risks. Entities that can adapt to these changes, manage leverage, and respond effectively to ESG and political pressures will be better positioned to navigate the evolving credit landscape.