20220608-IMF-Bosnia_and_Herzegovina_2022_Article_IV_Consultation-Press_Release_Staff_Report_and_Statement_by_the_Executive_Director_for_Bosnia_and_Herzegovina_85页_3mb

报告摘要

IMF Article IV Consultation Staff Report: Bosnia and Herzegovina (April 2022)

Key Issues & Summary

Economic Context
Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) faced "rolling waves" of challenges from the COVID-19 pandemic and geopolitical tensions (Ukraine war). While economic activity rebounded in 2021, growth slowed in 2022 due to:
- Increased global food and fuel prices (+10.2% inflation in March 2022).
- Weakening European demand and potential supply chain disruptions from Russia/Ukraine conflicts.
- Persistent domestic political tensions delaying reforms.
Economic Projections
- GDP Growth: Declined to 2.4% in 2022 (from 7.1% in 2021), with medium-term stabilization around 3% by 2023.
- Inflation: Averaged 6.5% in 2022 (up from 2% in 2021), expected to soften gradually but remain above pre-pandemic levels.
- Current Account: Deficit widened to 5% of GDP (previously projected at 3.8-4%).
Fiscal Policy
- Key Recommendations:
  - Targeted fiscal support for vulnerable groups (e.g., temporary fuel tax suspension) rather than broad-based stimulus.
  - Avoid VAT reforms due to administrative complexity and evasion risks.
  - Restructure public wages to align with productivity and avoid fueling inflation.
  - Scale up infrastructure/Green investments, preferably via low-cost IMF/EU loans.
- Authorities' Stance: Agree to temporary relief measures but resist structural reforms due to election pressures.
Currency Board & Financial Stability
- Strengths: CBA maintained confidence; central bank introduced differentiated reserve remuneration.
- Vulnerabilities: Rising interest rate differentials in Europe could strain reserves if capital flows accelerate.
- Recommendations: Establish a Financial Stability Fund (FSF) to address bank restructuring and liquidity needs.
Governance & Structural Reforms
- Priority Areas:
  - Enhancing anti-corruption frameworks (AML/CFT), public procurement transparency.
  - Modernizing electronic identification systems and targeting social assistance.
  - Accelerating reforms in health and public enterprises to improve efficiency.
- Challenges: Ongoing political stalemate, particularly in Republika Srpska.
Concluding Assessment
- BiH’s "second rock of [the state]" is fiscal discipline, referencing the CBA.
- Medium-term risks from inflation persistence and limited structural progress demand "determined policy" collaboration.