20250720-国泰期货-Polyester_Data_Weekly_Report_Cost-driven_Valuation_Strengthening_45页_4mb

Polyester Data Weekly Report Summary

Introduction

This report, dated July 20, 2025, from GTJA Futures Research Institute, provides an analysis of the polyester market. Key areas include supply-demand dynamics for PX, PTA, MEG, polyester, and end-user segments, based on current market trends and data.

Key Markets

PX (Paraxylene)

• Market Conditions: Unilateral oscillation with strong bias, monthly spread stabilizes and rebounds. Supply remains tight due to reduced operating rates of domestic plants, including Shenghong and Hengli, with potential maintenance at Tianjin Petrochemical.
• Demand: Weak downstream demand, but PX tightness affects profitability margins.
• Valuation: MX valuation declined due to Shandong Yulong startup, leading to a widened PX-MX spread.

PTA (Polyethylene Terephthalate Acid)

• Market Dynamics: Weekly oscillation driven by weak demand and costs; September-January spread can be operated in 20-70 range. Sanfangxiang's 1.5 million-ton plant in trial operation boosts supply.
• Operating Rate: Polyester operating rate at 88.5% (-0.3%), expected to recover gradually due to restarts like after August.
• Inventory and Logistics: PTA inventory accumulation limited due to high raw material inventory; attention on August's restarts and basis support from logistics amid typhoon weather.

MEG (Ethylene Glycol)

• Positions and Spreads: Reduce long September-January spread positions; operate in 4250-4450 range. Monthly spread declining, limited downside.
• Supply and Demand: Import volumes high, with domestic coal-based plants operating at 70% load. Weak polyester demand constrains demand-side pressures.

Polyester Segment

• Operating-Rate: 88.5% (-0.3%), with end-user demand fluctuations. Short fiber and polyester production segments face reduced premiums.
• Inventory: High inventory in filament yarn, easing the urgency for cuts; staple fibers and bottle chips more manageable.
• Demand Lean: Off-season demand supports bearsish outlook; inventory pressure rising significantly in some areas.

End User Analysis

• Weaving and Apparel: Operating rates low in key regions like Jiangsu and Zhejiang (56%) due to high inventories and limited demand. Textile sales uncoupled with polyester due to tariff issues and weak global orders.
• Inventory Levels: Finished goods inventory accumulating, with raw material stockpiling easing slightly but demand still subdued.

Recommendations and Outlook

• Short-Term: Focus on unilateral market oscillations, monthly spread rebounds, and reduced positions based on seasonal trends.
• Risks: High sensitivity to imports, inventory overstocking, and geopolitical factors like tariffs impacting production and trade flows.

The report underscores bearish-leaning short-term trends across the polyester chain, with cost pressures and inventory management key areas for monitoring.