20250608-国泰期货-Polyester_Data_Weekly_Report__Tight_supply,_canlender_spread_maintains_strong_45页_4mb

Polyester Data Weekly Report Summary

Core Content Overview

This report provides a detailed analysis of the polyester market, focusing on the dynamics of PX, PTA, and MEG, as well as the broader implications for the textile and apparel industry. It highlights the current supply and demand balance, pricing trends, and the impact of macroeconomic factors and seasonal demand changes.

Main Points

PX Market

• Supply and Demand: PX supply and demand are both rising. Domestic plant operating rates reached 87% (+4.9%), with Shenghong, Qingdao Lidong, and CNOOC Huizhou increasing production. PTA operating rates rose to 79.7% (+4%), driven by the restart of Jiatong Energy and Yisheng Dahua, and the delayed shutdown of Taicang's unit.
• Imports: PX imports in April fell to 720,000 tons, but are expected to increase in May due to the resumption of operations in ROK and Japan.
• Valuation and Profit: PX prices are strengthening, with the domestic-international spread widening. However, the long-term trend remains weak. The PX market is in tight balance, with potential for margin recovery due to the upcoming commissioning of new PTA capacity.
• Market Outlook: It is advisable to conduct reverse arbitrage on the monthly spread when prices rise. The PXN (Para-Xylene Naphtha) price returned to $280/ton, indicating a slight recovery in PX demand.

PTA Market

• Supply and Demand: PTA operating rates increased to 79.7% by Thursday, with some plants reducing contract volumes and the market showing signs of tightness. However, the PTA market is expected to face inventory buildup as demand weakens.
• Valuation and Profit: The PTA market shows limited upside potential, with the 9-1 spread hitting a 3-year high. The basis has surged significantly, indicating strong demand and tight supply. The PX remains the most profitable segment in the industry chain.
• Inventory: PTA inventory levels have slowed in reduction and are expected to shift to accumulation. This week, the inventory fell to 4.51 million tons, with the spot processing fee rising and then retreating.
• Market Outlook: Maintain a long PX/short PTA position. Monitor the progress of new PTA capacity coming online and the potential for inventory pressure in the coming weeks.

MEG Market

• Supply and Demand: Supply is showing marginal recovery, while demand weakens. MEG operating rates unexpectedly dropped to 59.8% (+1.6%), with coal-based MEG valuations at historical highs due to falling coal prices.
• Valuation and Profit: Coal-based MEG production margins remain high, while naphtha-based MEG margins also rebound. However, the MEG market balance is loosening, which may limit further upside for calendar spreads.
• Market Outlook: Execute reverse arbitrage on calendar spreads when they widen. Monitor the MEG operating rate and the impact of supply and demand shifts on the market.

Key Market Trends

• PX:

  • Supply and demand are both rising.
  • PXN price returned to $280/ton.
  • PX is in tight balance, with potential for margin recovery.
  • Domestic PX imports are expected to rise in May due to ROK and Japan resuming operations.

• PTA:

  • Operating rates have increased, but underlying demand remains weak.
  • Inventory reduction has slowed, with a potential shift to accumulation.
  • The 9-1 spread hit a 3-year high, and basis has surged.
  • The PTA spot processing fee has fluctuated, with a recent retreat.

• MEG:

  • Supply is showing marginal recovery, but demand is weakening.
  • Coal-based MEG valuations are at historical highs.
  • Naphtha-based MEG margins have rebounded.
  • The MEG market balance is loosening, potentially limiting further gains.

End Users and Demand Outlook

• Textile Manufacturing and Apparel Industry:

  • Weaving machines in Jiangsu-Zhejiang operate at 67% (-2%), and texturing machines at 80% (-2%).
  • Grey fabric orders and shipment atmosphere are weak, with a short export window.
  • Finished goods inventory is declining, which may benefit producers and intermediaries.
  • Downstream weaving firms' order performance varies, with some experiencing minimal impact.

• Retail Sales:

  • China: Jan-Apr retail sales in the textile and apparel sector reached RMB 493.9 billion (+3.1%). April's monthly value was RMB 108.7 billion (+2.2%).
  • U.S.: Q1 2025 retail sales reached $46.9 billion (+47%), with March sales at $183 billion (+5.7%).
  • UK: April retail sales reached GBP 3.57 billion (+8.5%), with Jan-Apr cumulative sales at GBP 14.7 billion (+8.4%).

• Inventory Trends:

  • U.S. apparel and fabric wholesalers' inventory declined 0.28% MoM to $266.7 billion.
  • PTA inventory is expected to transition from drawdown to accumulation, with grey fabric inventories increasing rapidly.

Conclusion

The polyester market remains in a tight supply-demand balance, with PX showing strength due to rising production and demand. PTA and MEG are facing weak demand and inventory pressures, which may limit further price gains. The textile and apparel industry is experiencing seasonal weakness, with grey fabric orders and weaving sentiment remaining cautious. The U.S. and UK show positive retail growth, while China's exports are moderate. Overall, the market suggests a cautious outlook, with reverse arbitrage opportunities on PX and PTA spreads and a focus on cost management for MEG producers.