2024-10-27-IMF-黑山_对外部门统计团技术援助报告（2024年7月29日至8月9日）（英）_15页_383kb

Montenegro External Sector Statistics Mission Summary

Mission Overview

• Dates: July 29–August 9, 2024
• Objective: Provided technical assistance to Montenegro’s Central Bank (CBM) to improve external sector statistics (ESS) compilation, reduce net errors and omissions (NEO), and support compliance with the IMF’s Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS).

Key Issues Addressed

1. Net Errors and Omissions (NEO)

• Changes:
  • Identified and corrected major drivers of large NEO (2022: ~12% of GDP), including under/overreporting of outflows from residents holding permits or passports via the Economic Citizenship Program.
  • Reduced average NEO (2021–2023) from 9% to 1.1% of GDP through BOP adjustments.
• Sources:
  • Spending/investments by new residents (immigrants, passport holders) not captured via BOP, corrected via "Other Changes" account.
  • Under-recording of crypto-currency payments for real estate.

2. Reserves Data Template (RDT)

• CBM and MOF coordinated to prepare an RDT draft following IMF guidelines.
• Key recommendations include improving data aggregation, training, IT systems, and instituting a monthly publication process (one-month lag).

3. Improve Financial Data Collection

• Prioritize collecting portfolio investment asset positions from custodian banks.
• Review market value vs. face value reporting for securities (Eurobonds).
• Integrate new tax data framework updates (mid-2025) to enhance data coverage and quality for ESS.

4. Balance of Payments Enhancements

• Adjustments to BOP: Properly record resident spending, ECP-related transactions, and derivative market values.
• Conduct surveys on:
  • Realtors’ use of crypto in real estate transactions.
  • Tourist spending patterns for more accurate BOP compilation.

Priority Recommendations (December deadline)

• By November 2024: Estimate and adjust BOP for ECP permit holders and passport holders.
• By January 2025: Submit RDT draft for IMF sign-off.
• Ongoing: Continue refining estimations, improve tax data integration, allocate IT resources for automation, and maintain staff training.

Conclusion

• Montenegro significantly reduced NEO and improved the quality of ESS but requires continued coordination between CBM and MOF, updated data collection methods, and investment in IT/staff resources to maintain alignment with international standards.