【IMF】巴西：政府财政和公共部门债务统计任务技术援助报告（2024年8月5日至16日）_40页_942kb

Technical Report Summary: Brazil - Government Finance and Public Sector Debt Statistics Mission (August 5-16, 2024)

Core Content and Mission Overview

This report outlines the findings and recommendations from a technical assistance mission conducted by the IMF Statistics Department in August 2024, aimed at improving the compilation and dissemination of Government Finance Statistics (GFS) and Public Sector Debt Statistics (PSDS) in Brazil. The mission was requested by the Ministry of Finance (MF), the Central Bank of Brazil (BACEN), and the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), and followed up on previous technical support from 2016 and remote discussions with IMF staff.

The primary goal is to transition Brazil to the use of GFS (based on GFSM 2014) as the official framework for fiscal statistics, replacing the traditional RTN (Resultado do Tesouro Nacional) and BACEN's fiscal data. This initiative seeks to enhance the reliability, consistency, and quality of fiscal data for policy-making.

Main Tasks and Objectives

• Sectorization Review: Assess the classification of public sector institutional units, with a focus on extrabudgetary units and subnational employment-related pension schemes.
• Fiscal Statistics Consistency: Evaluate vertical consistency in fiscal data to resolve discrepancies between data at different levels (especially for municipalities).
• Follow-up on Previous Recommendations: Implement recommendations from prior missions and remote discussions, aligned with GFSM 2014, including transactions between BACEN and STN, and classifications of "precatorios" and "divida ativa".
• Integration of PSDS: Include Public Sector Debt Statistics in the discussions to align with the GEDSP 2011 guide.

Key Findings

• Since 2007, significant progress has been made in implementing GFSM 2014, with continuous improvements in data sources, coverage, and compilation techniques.
• Two sets of fiscal statistics are currently published: the traditional RTN and the Brazilian GFS, which is broadly consistent with GFSM 2014.
• Discrepancies between the two sets exist, particularly in the measurement of the net lending/borrowing balance and financing statistics, with an average discrepancy of 1.1% of GDP from 2017 to 2023.
• The migration to GFS requires a comprehensive and transparent approach to ensure user confidence and policy relevance.

Priority Recommendations

1. Develop and Execute a 5-Year Work Program

• Target Date: End-2029
• Actions:
  • Implement all identified methodological improvements.
  • Strengthen the adoption of GFS as the official fiscal statistics framework.
  • Include quality improvements, user education, and integration into analytical publications.

2. Create an Inter-institutional Working Group on Fiscal Statistics

• Responsible Institutions: STN, BACEN, IBGE, and MPs
• Actions:
  • Establish a working group to oversee the implementation of the 5-year plan.
  • Include technical subgroups for specific topics such as sectorization, data sources, and metadata.

3. Develop a Sectorization Table

• Target Date: March 2025
• Actions:
  • Create a sectorization table by subsectors of the public sector.
  • Distribute the finalized table to all macroeconomic statistics compilers.

4. Continuous Sectorization Updates

• Target Date: End 2025 and annually thereafter
• Actions:
  • Regularly update the sectorization list as needed.

5. Compile GFS Consistently with Macro Data

• Target Date: End 2025
• Actions:
  • Ensure intersectoral consistency by compiling GFS aligned with macroeconomic statistics.

6. Reconstitute Technical Working Group on RPPS

• Target Date: End 2024
• Actions:
  • Reestablish the Technical Working Group on Employment-Related Pension Schemes (RPPS) with a focus on state and municipal governments.

7. Compile Annual and Quarterly GFS Data on RPPS

• Target Dates: End 2025 (annual), End 2026 (quarterly)
• Actions:
  • Compile and disseminate annual and quarterly GFS data on RPPS, consistent with the GFSM 2014 methodology.

8. Compile Interest on Financial Assets and Liabilities

• Target Date: End 2025
• Actions:
  • Record interest on all relevant financial assets and liabilities, with special attention to RPPS, "precatorios", and "divida ativa".

9. Provide Incentives to State and Municipal Governments

• Target Date: End 2025
• Actions:
  • Offer special awards or recognition to encourage state and municipal governments to provide complete and detailed accounting data.

10. Review "Divida Ativa" Estimates

• Target Date: End 2025
• Actions:
  • Accurately record overdue taxes in accounts receivable and related interest accruals.
  • Avoid overestimation of these figures.

11. Review Compilation of "Precatorios"

• Target Date: End 2025
• Actions:
  • Revise the historical series of court-ordered debts to ensure consistency with GFSM 2014.

12. Compile and Disseminate PSDS Tables

• Target Date: Annual end of year targets (2024-2029)
• Actions:
  • Compile and publish PSDS tables 5.1 through 5.6.c., 5.9, 5.10, and 5.12.
  • Include associated metadata and develop internal documentation for PSDS.

13. Record Transactions Between BACEN and STN

• Target Date: End 2025
• Actions:
  • Ensure transactions between the Central Bank and the National Treasury are recorded in accordance with GFSM 2014.

14. Review Compilation of FIES and Related Funds

• Target Date: End 2025
• Actions:
  • Ensure the compilation of the Fundo de Financiamento Estudantil (FIES) and related guarantee funds aligns with GFSM 2014.

15. Disseminate FGTS Data Separately

• Target Date: End 2024
• Actions:
  • Publish FGTS data separately, following the GFSM 2014 framework and with corresponding metadata.

16. Compile Consolidated GFS

• Target Dates: End 2024 (general government), End 2027 (nonfinancial public sector), End 2029 (entire public sector)
• Actions:
  • Develop data sources for all public sector corporations at the state and municipal levels.
  • Compile and disseminate consolidated GFS data.

17. Revise and Disseminate Metadata

• Target Date: Annual end of year targets (2024-2029)
• Actions:
  • Update and publish metadata for each GFS dataset.
  • Revise internal business process documentation (guides of compilation).

Discrepancies and General Themes

• Discrepancies in the Brazilian GFS exist, particularly in the net lending/borrowing balance and financing statistics.
• These discrepancies are attributed to:
  • Coverage of institutional units.
  • Scope of instruments.
  • Recording moments.
  • Valuation methods (cash vs. accrual).
• The mission emphasized the importance of reducing discrepancies to improve the reliability and consistency of fiscal data.

Conclusion

The mission concluded that a structured and transparent 5-year work program is essential for the successful migration to GFS-based fiscal statistics. This includes the establishment of an inter-institutional working group, continuous improvements in data sources and compilation methods, and the development of comprehensive metadata and documentation. The mission also recommended the use of Results-Based Management tools to monitor progress and ensure alignment with GFSM 2014 and GEDSP 2011 standards.

The authorities were encouraged to consider follow-up technical assistance, either remotely or in person, to monitor the implementation of the recommendations and ensure the eventual adoption of GFS as the official fiscal statistics framework in Brazil.