20230811-华金期货-黑色原料周报_18页_6mb

Summary of Iron Ore Analysis (Week of August 11, 2023)

• Supply: Iron ore shipments continued to decline, with domestic concentrate production rising, keeping overall supply stable. Major mines like FMG, BHP, and Rio Tinto are maintaining expected output levels comparable to 2022.

• Demand: Iron water output moderately increased but has limited room for further growth due to high production. Raw material demand remains strong in the short term, supporting prices.

• Inventory: Port total inventory decreased below historical averages, indicating ongoing demand. Further inventory reduction is expected, with specific inventories like port stock showing steady declines.

• Prices: Prices at Qingdao Port for PB powder ranged around 840, with the September futures contract oscillating in the high range. High demand is underpinning price levels.

• Risk Factors: Potential sharp increase in finished steel demand or unexpected surge in iron water output could disrupt the balance. These risks need monitoring for price volatility.

Focus on Key Metrics:

• Global shipping volumes dropped, with Australian and Brazilian shipments falling significantly, while non-Australian volumes held steady.
• High iron water levels persist, delaying any reduction plans, which could sustain iron ore prices amid strong demand but faces risks from overstocking.

Summary of Coking Coal and Coking Analysis (Week of August 11, 2023)

• Supply: Imports through key gateways like Mongolia remained high, but overall, gateways like Gagat and Zhake saw fluctuations. Production at coking plants held steady with high capacity utilization.

• Demand: Iron water output stayed elevated, with coking production slightly rising amid strong demand. However, concerns about potential production cuts keep prices cautious.

• Inventory: Inventories at all levels (factories, ports, and mines) are low or stable, with noticeable declines in certain sectors like coking coal and coke inventories. Continued stock reduction is expected if iron water growth slows.

• Prices: Both spot and futures prices for coal and coke were sideways or slightly lower, with some contracts showing contango. Profit margins for independent plants improved, with average earnings around 70 yuan/ton.

• Risk Factors: Short-term price support from local mine curtailments exists, but long-term supply surplus due to ample production could limit further gains. Market conditions depend on demand for coking materials and economic factors like currency movements.

Overall Summary

• Iron Ore: Shipment declines are ongoing, with demand booming amid high iron water output. Inventory reduction is key, while risks from demand shifts could impact price stability.
• Coking Coal/Jaunt: Supply tightness persists despite inventories remaining low, supported by demand. Price gains are tentative due to existing profits and potential supply surpluses. Global uncertainty around currencies and economic trends adds layers of risk.

Disclaimer

This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Market conditions can change, and past performance does not guarantee future results.