2008年-ECB欧洲央行_Convergence_Report_265页_2mb

Convergence Report - May 2008

Introduction

• The euro was introduced in 1999, and as of May 2008, 15 EU Member States had adopted it.
• The most recent adopters were Cyprus and Malta on 1 January 2008.
• Twelve Member States are not yet full participants in the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU).
• Two of these, Denmark and the United Kingdom, have opted out of Stage Three of EMU.
• This report examines ten countries: Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, and Sweden.
• These countries are committed to adopting the euro and must meet all convergence criteria.
• The ECB fulfills its mandate under Article 121(1) and Article 122(2) of the Treaty to assess progress in achieving EMU.
• The report is prepared in parallel with a similar report by the European Commission.
• Slovakia is assessed in more detail due to its recent request for examination and its intention to adopt the euro in 2009, as well as its history of nominal appreciation.

Framework for Analysis

2.1 Economic Convergence

• The ECB uses a common framework to assess economic convergence, based on:
  • Treaty provisions: Price stability, fiscal sustainability, exchange rate stability, and long-term interest rate levels.
  • Additional backward and forward-looking indicators to evaluate the sustainability of convergence.

Guiding Principles

• Criteria are interpreted strictly to ensure only countries with stable economic conditions can join EMU.
• All convergence criteria are treated equally, with no suggested hierarchy.
• Convergence must be based on actual data and achieved on a lasting basis, not just at a given point in time.
• The examination emphasizes sustainability of convergence, not just meeting thresholds.

Timeframes and Data Sources

• The cut-off date for statistics in the report is 18 April 2008.
• Data for fiscal positions covers the period up to 2007.
• Inflation and interest rate data are based on the HICP (Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices) and long-term government bonds.
• Exchange rate data is based on ERM II (Exchange Rate Mechanism II) central rates and official ECB data.

Key Indicators and Methodology

Price Stability

• Treaty Provisions:
  • A high degree of price stability is indicated by an inflation rate close to that of the three best-performing Member States.
  • The reference value is set at 3.2% (1.7% average of the three lowest inflation countries + 1.5 percentage points).
• Application:
  • The ECB uses the HICP to measure inflation.
  • The reference period for inflation is April 2007 to March 2008.
  • The ECB reviews the 10-year economic performance to assess the sustainability of price developments.
  • Forward-looking indicators include forecasts from international organizations and market participants.

Fiscal Sustainability

• Treaty Provisions:
  • A government budgetary position without an excessive deficit.
  • The reference value for the deficit ratio is 3% of GDP.
  • The debt ratio must not exceed 60% of GDP and must be decreasing at a satisfactory pace.
• Application:
  • The ECB examines fiscal data from 1998 to 2007.
  • It assesses the primary balance, deficit-debt adjustment, and government expenditure and revenue trends.
  • The ECB does not have a formal role in the excessive deficit procedure (EDP), but it reports whether a country is subject to it.
  • It also considers the structure of government debt, including short-term and foreign currency debt.

Exchange Rate Stability

• Treaty Provisions:
  • A country must respect the normal fluctuation margins of the exchange-rate mechanism (ERM II) for at least two years.
  • It must not devalue its currency against any other Member State’s currency.
• Application:
  • The ECB checks if the country has participated in ERM II without severe tensions.
  • For countries not in ERM II, April 2006 exchange rates are used as benchmarks.
  • The ECB considers exchange rate volatility, interest rate differentials, and foreign exchange interventions.
  • It also evaluates external trade integration and financial integration with the euro area.

Long-Term Interest Rate Levels

• Treaty Provisions:
  • Long-term interest rates must not exceed by more than 2 percentage points the levels of the three best-performing Member States in price stability.
• Application:
  • The reference value is 6.5% (4.5% average of the three lowest inflation countries + 2 percentage points).
  • The ECB uses harmonised long-term interest rates.
  • For countries without such data, it conducts a broad analysis of financial markets.

Key Countries and Analysis

• The report includes country summaries and detailed examinations for each of the ten Member States.
• Slovakia is assessed more thoroughly due to its recent request for examination and its potential adoption of the euro in 2009.
• The ECB emphasizes the importance of statistical integrity and transparency in assessing convergence.
• It highlights the need for consistent and reliable data to ensure accurate evaluation of economic and fiscal conditions.

Conclusion

• The ECB aims to ensure that the countries under review meet the convergence criteria for joining EMU.
• The report underscores the importance of sustainability in economic and fiscal developments.
• The ECB provides a transparent and consistent framework for assessing convergence, aligning with the Treaty and previous reports.
• The report is based on data up to April 2008, with forecasts and projections also considered for forward-looking assessments.