2007年-ECB欧洲央行_Convergence_Report_May_91页_1mb

Convergence Report - May 2007

Core Content Overview

This Convergence Report by the European Central Bank (ECB) evaluates the economic and legal convergence of Cyprus and Malta towards the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). The report is based on data up to 26 April 2007, with the latest convergence data on prices and long-term interest rates presented up to March 2007. It outlines the framework and methodology used to assess whether these countries meet the convergence criteria outlined in the Treaty establishing the European Community and the Statute of the European System of Central Banks (ESCB).

Main Requirements for Convergence

The ECB evaluates the following key aspects for each country:

1. Economic Convergence

• Price stability: A high degree of price stability is required, measured by the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP).
• Fiscal sustainability: The government's financial position must be sustainable, with no excessive deficit and a debt-to-GDP ratio below 60%.
• Exchange rate stability: The country must have maintained exchange rate stability within the Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM II) for at least two years.
• Long-term interest rates: The long-term interest rate must not exceed the average of the three best-performing Member States by more than 2 percentage points.

2. Legal Convergence

• The national legislation and statutes of national central banks (NCBs) must be compatible with Articles 108 and 109 of the Treaty and the ESCB Statute.
• The ECB assesses whether the legal framework allows for the integration of NCBs into the Eurosystem.

Key Information

1. Economic Convergence Analysis

• Price developments:

  • The reference period for inflation is April 2006 to March 2007.
  • The reference value is set at 3.0%, calculated as the unweighted arithmetic average of the three lowest inflation countries (Finland, Poland, and Sweden) plus 1.5 percentage points.
  • The ECB reviews long-term trends in price stability to assess the sustainability of convergence, considering factors like unit labour costs, import prices, and other price indices.
  • Forward-looking analysis includes forecasts from international organizations and market participants.

• Fiscal developments:

  • The reference value for the government deficit-to-GDP ratio is 3%.
  • The ECB assesses historical data from 1997 to 2006, including primary balance, deficit-debt adjustment, and government expenditure and revenue trends.
  • It also reviews medium-term fiscal strategies and convergence programmes.
  • Debt sustainability is evaluated based on the debt-to-GDP ratio and its trend over the last ten years.

• Exchange rate developments:

  • Both Cyprus and Malta have participated in ERM II since 2 May 2005.
  • The ECB checks whether the exchange rate has remained close to the ERM II central rate and whether severe tensions have occurred.
  • It also considers exchange rate volatility, interest rate differentials, and foreign exchange interventions.

• Long-term interest rate developments:

  • The reference value is 6.4%, calculated as the unweighted arithmetic average of the three best-performing Member States (Finland, Poland, and Sweden) plus 2 percentage points.
  • The ECB uses HICP data to determine the reference period for interest rates, which is also April 2006 to March 2007.
  • For countries without harmonised long-term interest rate data, the ECB conducts a broad analysis of financial markets, considering government debt levels and other relevant indicators.

2. Legal Convergence Analysis

• The ECB examines whether the national legislation and NCB statutes are in line with Articles 108 and 109 of the Treaty and the ESCB Statute.
• The analysis ensures that the legal framework supports the integration of NCBs into the Eurosystem.
• The ECB does not limit itself to the letter of the law but also evaluates compliance with the spirit of the Treaty.

Summary of Country Examinations

• Cyprus and Malta are both under review.
• The ECB focuses on the sustainability of economic convergence and the compatibility of their legal frameworks.
• The report is based on data provided by the European Commission, with cooperation from the ECB for long-term interest rates.

Methodology and Data Sources

• The statistical methodology is detailed in the annex of the report.
• Data is collected up to 26 April 2007, with the cut-off date for statistics used in the report.
• The European Commission's 2007 spring forecast (released on 7 May 2007) is taken into account for forward-looking assessments.
• The report was adopted by the General Council of the ECB on 14 May 2007.

Conclusion

The report ensures continuity and equal treatment of Member States by using a common framework for analysis. It highlights the importance of high-quality statistics and transparent policy in achieving and maintaining economic and legal convergence. The ECB emphasizes that convergence must be sustainable, not just temporary, and that this involves both sound initial conditions and ongoing policy efforts.