2008年-ECB欧洲央行_Ten_years_of_the_stability_and_growth_pact_13页_321kb

10 Years of the Stability and Growth Pact: A Summary

Core Content

The Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) was established in 1997 to ensure that EU Member States' fiscal policies support the smooth functioning of the European Monetary Union (EMU). The Pact consists of two Council regulations and a European Council resolution, which were amended in 2005. It aims to enforce fiscal discipline by setting reference values for government deficits and debt and by establishing procedures for correcting excessive deficits.

The SGP is designed to promote long-term fiscal sustainability and support economic growth and employment creation. It includes both preventive and corrective mechanisms. The preventive arm requires Member States to submit stability and convergence programs and to target medium-term budgetary objectives, typically aiming for a structural budget balance close to or in surplus. The corrective arm outlines procedures for addressing excessive deficits, including recommendations and, in severe cases, sanctions.

Main Views

Fiscal Developments in the Euro Area

• Pre-EMU period: Many European countries had unsustainable fiscal policies, leading to high government deficits and debt levels.
• Debt-to-GDP ratio: Rose from below 40% in 1980 to over 70% by the mid-1990s.
• Post-EMU period: The euro area has seen significant fiscal consolidation, with the government deficit reaching its lowest level in decades (0.6% of GDP in 2007).
• Cyclically adjusted total expenditure: Declined by nearly 5 percentage points from its 1980s level, but still remains above that of the early 1990s.
• Cyclically adjusted total revenue: Has fluctuated but remained higher than in the 1980s.

Implementation of the SGP

• Compliance: Has been uneven across Member States. Some countries have fully complied with the preventive arm, while others have not.
• Full compliance: Ireland, Luxembourg, and Finland have fully complied with the SGP's preventive arm in most years since 1998. Spain, the Netherlands, and Cyprus have joined them in recent years.
• Partial compliance: Belgium, Austria, and Germany have partially complied, often maintaining close to balance budgets but not achieving their stated medium-term objectives.
• Non-compliance: Greece, France, Italy, and Portugal have consistently failed to meet the SGP's preventive arm requirements, with persistent structural deficits.

Corrective Arm of the SGP

• Excessive deficit procedure: Triggered when a government deficit exceeds the 3% of GDP reference value. The European Commission assesses whether the deficit is exceptional, temporary, or due to other factors.
• Sanctions: The Pact allows for the imposition of sanctions if deficits persist beyond two years, though the 2005 reform introduced more flexibility in extending deadlines.
• Compliance with corrective arm: Most Member States have breached the 3% reference value at least once since 1998. The Netherlands and others saw short-lived breaches, while countries like Greece and Italy had prolonged issues.

Key Information

• Reference values:
  • Government deficit: 3% of GDP
  • Government debt: 60% of GDP
• Fiscal consolidation:
  • Strongest in the run-up to EMU adoption
  • Continued improvements in the early 2000s, though not all countries have met their medium-term objectives
• Challenges:
  • Some countries have repeated breaches of the 3% deficit limit
  • Deviations from fiscal plans were due to over-optimistic growth forecasts, data revisions, revenue fluctuations, and expenditure slippages
  • The implementation of the SGP has lacked sufficient rigour and political will in some cases

Summary of Compliance Trends

Lessons and Future Outlook

• The SGP has played a role in reducing the trend of increasing government indebtedness.
• However, the implementation has been inconsistent, with some countries repeatedly breaching the 3% deficit limit.
• The Pact has helped improve fiscal positions in the euro area, but further consolidation is needed to meet medium-term budgetary objectives.
• Prudent and stability-oriented fiscal strategies are recommended to ensure long-term sustainability and support growth and employment.