2004年-ECB欧洲央行_Convergence_Report_248页_1mb

2004 Convergence Report Summary

Core Content

The 2004 Convergence Report by the European Central Bank (ECB) evaluates the economic and legal convergence of 11 non-euro area Member States of the European Union (EU) prior to their potential accession to the Eurosystem. The report is based on the Treaty establishing the European Community (TEC), particularly Article 121 (1), and is aligned with the framework used by the European Monetary Institute (EMI) in 1998 and the ECB in 2000 and 2002.

Main Objectives

• Assess whether a high degree of sustainable convergence has been achieved in the 11 Member States.
• Evaluate compliance with the statutory requirements for national central banks (NCBs) to become part of the Eurosystem.
• Provide a basis for the ECB to report to the Council of the European Union (EU Council) as required by Article 122 (2) of the TEC.

Key Countries Examined

The following countries are included in the report:

• Czech Republic
• Estonia
• Cyprus
• Latvia
• Lithuania
• Hungary
• Malta
• Poland
• Slovenia
• Slovakia
• Sweden

Main Views and Analysis

1. Economic Convergence

The ECB uses a common framework for analysis, which includes:

• Price stability: Examines inflation trends, using the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) over the 12-month period from September 2003 to August 2004. The reference value for inflation is set at 2.4%, based on the average of the three best-performing Member States (Finland, Denmark, and Sweden) and adding 1.5 percentage points. Lithuania's inflation rate is noted as an outlier and excluded from the reference value calculation.

• Fiscal sustainability: Reviews government budgetary positions, debt-to-GDP ratios, and deficit-to-GDP ratios. The reference values are set at 3% for the deficit and 60% for the debt ratio. The ECB emphasizes the importance of long-term fiscal discipline and sustainability, taking into account both past and projected trends.

• Exchange rate stability: Considers the participation of Member States in the Exchange Rate Mechanism II (ERM II), which has been in place since 28 June 2004 for three of the countries. The ECB assesses whether the exchange rate has remained stable within the ERM II fluctuation margins for at least two years.

• Long-term interest rates: Compares the long-term interest rates of the Member States with those of the three best-performing countries. The reference value is set at 6.4%, based on an average of 4.4% for Finland, Denmark, and Sweden, plus 2 percentage points. The ECB uses harmonized interest rate data for this analysis.

2. Legal Compatibility

The report also evaluates the compatibility of national legislation with the Treaty and the Statute of the European System of Central Banks (ESCB). This includes:

• The legal integration of NCBs into the Eurosystem.
• The independence of NCBs.
• The alignment of national laws with the Treaty's requirements, particularly Articles 108 and 109.

Key Information

• Excluded Countries: Denmark and the United Kingdom are excluded from the report due to their special status under the Treaty and their lack of request for inclusion.
• Statistical Methodology: The report uses data based on the European System of Accounts 1995 (ESA 95) and focuses on national accounts, government finance statistics, and balance of payments data.
• Sustainability Focus: The ECB emphasizes the need for convergence to be not only achieved at a specific point in time but also sustained over the long term.
• Outlier Consideration: The concept of "outlier" is used in inflation analysis to exclude data that might distort the reference value, as seen with Lithuania's negative inflation rate.
• Forward-looking Analysis: The report includes forecasts and assessments of future economic and fiscal developments, particularly in relation to the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) and the Convergence Programme.

Structure and Methodology

• Framework: Based on the Treaty provisions, with a focus on price stability, fiscal sustainability, exchange rate stability, and long-term interest rates.
• Backward-looking Analysis: Reviews economic performance over the past eight years to assess the sustainability of convergence.
• Forward-looking Analysis: Considers future economic and fiscal projections, including the medium-term fiscal strategy and long-term challenges such as public pension systems and demographic changes.
• Statistical Annex: Provides detailed data and methodologies for the analysis, including HICP, fiscal indicators, and interest rate data.

Conclusion

The report serves as a comprehensive evaluation of the economic and legal readiness of the 11 Member States to join the Eurosystem. It highlights the importance of maintaining price stability, fiscal discipline, and exchange rate stability as prerequisites for sustainable convergence. The ECB underscores the need for consistent, transparent, and simple application of convergence criteria, while also acknowledging the challenges and special circumstances of each country.