2000年-ECB欧洲央行_Convergence_Report_86页_535kb

2000 Convergence Report Summary

Introduction

The 2000 Convergence Report by the European Central Bank (ECB) evaluates the economic convergence of Greece and Sweden toward the European System of Central Banks (ESCB) and the conditions necessary for their full participation in the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). The report is based on the framework established by the European Monetary Institute (EMI) in 1998 and is prepared in accordance with Article 122(2) of the Treaty establishing the European Community. The report covers the period from April 1999 to March 2000 and is intended to support the decision-making process for the abrogation of special status for Member States. It includes an assessment of price developments, fiscal positions, exchange rates, and long-term interest rates, as well as a review of the compatibility of national legislation with the Treaty and the ESCB Statute.

Key Aspects of Economic Convergence Examination

• The report is part of the regular process to evaluate the progress of Member States in fulfilling their obligations under EMU.
• The examination is based on several economic criteria: inflation, fiscal position, exchange rate, and long-term interest rates.
• The ECB uses data from the European System of Accounts 1995 (ESA 95) and adheres to the methodological framework outlined in the statistical annex.
• The report is intended to inform the European Commission and the ECOFIN Council regarding the sustainability of convergence and the potential for abrogating special status.

Country Assessments

Greece

• Inflation: Achieved a 12-month average HICP inflation rate of 2.0% in 2000, below the reference value. Inflation was at the reference value in 1999 and has shown a clear downward trend since 1990, from 20.4% to 2.6%.
• Fiscal Position:
  • The 1999 general government deficit ratio was 1.6%, below the 3% reference value.
  • The debt ratio was 104.4%, significantly above the 60% reference value.
  • Deficit and debt ratios have decreased slightly since 1998, with the deficit ratio falling by 1.5 percentage points and the debt ratio by 1 percentage point.
• Exchange Rates:
  • The Greek drachma has been part of the Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) since 1998 and joined ERM II in 1999.
  • The drachma traded above its central rates during the reference period.
  • A 3.5% revaluation of the central rate occurred in January 2000.
• Interest Rates:
  • The average long-term interest rate was 6.4%, below the reference value.
  • The difference between Greek long-term interest rates and the euro area average was 0.8 percentage point.
  • The difference between Greek short-term interest rates and the euro area average was 540 basis points.
• Current Account:
  • Greece recorded current account deficits, which are interpreted as a result of the need to finance investments.
• Legislation:
  • The Statute of the Bank of Greece was amended in April 2000 to meet the requirements of the Treaty and the ESCB Statute.
  • Other legislation, including laws on access to public documents and secrecy, needs to be reviewed in light of the ESCB confidentiality regime.
• Challenges:
  • The recent reduction in inflation is partly due to temporary factors, including oil price changes.
  • Upward risks to inflation include the non-renewal of gentleman's agreements and potential interest rate convergence.
  • Fiscal sustainability is still a concern, with the debt ratio remaining above the reference value.
  • Continued fiscal consolidation and structural reforms are needed to achieve long-term price stability and reduce the debt ratio to 60%.

Sweden

• Inflation: Achieved a 12-month average HICP inflation rate of 0.8% in 2000, well below the reference value.
• Fiscal Position:
  • Achieved a fiscal surplus of 1.9% of GDP in 1999, meeting the 3% reference value.
  • The debt-to-GDP ratio was 65.5% in 1999, above the 60% reference value.
  • The outlook is for a further decline in the debt ratio to 61.3% in 2000.
• Exchange Rates:
  • Sweden does not participate in ERM II.
  • The krona appreciated by 14.4% against the euro during 1999 and early 2000.
• Interest Rates:
  • The long-term interest rate was 5.4%, below the reference value.
• Current Account:
  • Recorded current account surpluses while maintaining a net external liability position.
• Legislation:
  • The Statute of Sveriges Riksbank does not anticipate legal integration into the ESCB, although Sweden must comply with all adaptation requirements under Article 109 of the Treaty.
  • The ECB notes that the legislation on access to public documents and secrecy requires review to align with the ESCB confidentiality regime.
• Challenges:
  • The sustainability of fiscal developments is still under review, as the debt ratio remains above the reference value.
  • Sweden is expected to comply with the Stability and Growth Pact's medium-term objective of maintaining a budgetary position close to balance or in surplus.

Convergence Criteria

• The convergence criteria include:
  • Price stability: Inflation must be close to that of the three best-performing Member States.
  • Fiscal sustainability: Deficit and debt ratios must be within reference values and show a satisfactory trend.
  • Exchange rate stability: The currency must remain within the ERM II bands.
  • Long-term interest rates: Must be close to the euro area average.
• These criteria are applied using a backward-looking and forward-looking approach, with an emphasis on the sustainability of economic developments.

Compatibility of National Legislation with the Treaty

• The ECB assesses whether national legislation, including the Statute of the national central bank, is compatible with the Treaty and the ESCB Statute.
• Greece's legislation has been updated to meet the requirements for full legal integration into the ESCB.
• Sweden's legislation, particularly the Statute of Sveriges Riksbank, requires further adaptation to ensure compatibility with the ESCB Statute.

Conclusion

• Greece and Sweden have made progress in meeting the convergence criteria, but challenges remain in achieving long-term price stability and fiscal sustainability.
• Continued structural reforms, fiscal discipline, and policy consistency are crucial for Greece, while Sweden needs to maintain its fiscal position and ensure legal alignment with the ESCB.
• The report serves as a foundation for the decision-making process regarding the abrogation of special status for Member States.