韩国央行-经济展望（2025年8月）（英）_12页_1mb

Korea Economic Outlook (August 2025) Summary

Core Content

GDP Growth

• 2025 GDP Growth: Revised upward to 0.9% from 0.8% in May, driven by improved consumption and strong export performance, despite weak construction investment.
• 2026 GDP Growth: Expected to remain at 1.6%, with continued domestic demand recovery but potential export weakening due to U.S. tariffs.
• Quarterly Trends:
  • Q2 2025 GDP growth was 0.6%, rebounding from a Q1 contraction of 0.2%.
  • Q3 2025 growth is projected at 1.1%, higher than the previous 0.7%, due to consumption vouchers and semiconductor exports.
  • Q4 2025 growth is expected to slow to 0.2% as export pressures increase.

CPI Inflation

• 2025 CPI Inflation: Projected at 2.0%, up from 1.9% in May, due to adverse weather increasing prices of agricultural and marine products.
• Core Inflation: Remains at 1.9% for 2025, in line with the previous forecast.
• 2026 CPI Inflation: Both headline and core inflation are expected to rise to 1.9%.
• July CPI Inflation: Slightly eased to 2.1% from 2.2% in June, due to falling petroleum prices offsetting increases in food and marine product prices.

Current Account

• 2025 Current Account Surplus: Forecast at $110 billion, up from the May projection.
• 2026 Current Account Surplus: Projected at $85 billion, also higher than the May forecast.
• Goods Trade Surplus: Expected to exceed last year's level due to strong semiconductor exports, with U.S. tariffs impacting gradually.
• Primary and Secondary Income: Projected to record a significant surplus, driven by investment income and favorable global asset markets.

Employment

• 2025 Employment Growth: Forecast at 170,000, higher than the May projection of 120,000.
• 2026 Employment Growth: Projected at 130,000, above the May forecast of 100,000.
• Sectoral Trends:
  • Construction and manufacturing employment may decline due to weak investment and U.S. tariffs.
  • Services sector employment is expected to grow, supported by government policies and increased consumption.
• Employment Rate: Projected to rise to 62.8% in 2025 and 62.9% in 2026.

Key Factors

Domestic Demand

• Improved economic sentiment and the second supplementary budget are supporting domestic consumption.
• Nominal wage growth remains subdued, following weak corporate performance in Q2.

Exports

• Semiconductor exports are a key driver of export performance.
• U.S. tariffs are expected to gradually impact export growth, particularly in steel and automobiles.

Construction Investment

• Construction investment remains weaker than expected, dragging down overall GDP growth.

Exchange Rate

• The Won to U.S. dollar exchange rate is volatile, influenced by U.S. economic indicators and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts.

U.S. Tariff Policy

• Current Assumptions: Reciprocal and item-specific tariffs are maintained, with higher tariffs on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals (15%) postponed to 2026.
• Tariff Rates:
  • Reciprocal tariffs: 15% (Korea).
  • Steel, aluminium, and copper tariffs: 50%.
  • Automobiles and parts tariffs: 15%.
  • Semiconductors and pharmaceuticals tariffs: 15% (postponed to 2026).

Risks to the Outlook

Upside Risks

• Further easing of global trade policy uncertainty.
• Improvement in consumer and business sentiment.
• Robust performance in the Al-related semiconductor industry.

Downside Risks

• Reignition and escalation of trade conflicts, including a potential breakdown in U.S.-China negotiations.
• Prolonged structural and cyclical weakness in the construction sector.
• Heightened uncertainty in international financial markets.
• Expansion of global oil supply, which could reduce inflationary pressures.

Alternative Scenarios

• Optimistic Scenario: If trade conflicts ease and tariffs are reduced, GDP growth in 2026 is expected to be 0.1 percentage point higher than the baseline, with minimal impact on inflation.
• Pessimistic Scenario: If trade conflicts reignite and retaliatory tariffs are imposed, GDP growth and inflation in 2026 are forecast to be 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points lower, respectively.

Summary of Forecasts by Scenario

Key Assumptions

• Global Economic Growth: Projected at 2.5% in 2025 and 2.6% in 2026.
• Global Trade Growth: Expected to moderate to 1.5% in 2025 and 3.2% in 2026.
• Brent Oil Prices: Forecast to decline to the low-to-mid $60s by 2025 and stabilize around $63 by 2026.

Economic Sentiment and Consumer Data

• Composite Consumer Sentiment Index:
  • Jan-Nov 2024: 101.0
  • Dec 2024: 88.2
  • Jan-Apr 2025: 93.4
  • May 2025: 101.8
  • Jun 2025: 108.7
  • Aug 2025: 111.4
• Consumption Vouchers:
  • By August 20, 97.6% of the population had applied.
  • By August 7, about 50% had been spent via credit and debit cards.

Conclusion

The Korean economy is projected to grow at a modest pace in 2025, supported by improving domestic demand and strong exports, particularly in the semiconductor sector. Inflation is expected to remain near the Bank of Korea's target of 2%. However, the outlook remains subject to significant uncertainty, particularly from trade policy developments and global economic conditions.