【Fraunhofer】ISE2024光伏市场研究报告2013-2023年复合年增长率分析与未来展望57页_3mb

Photovoltaics Report Summary

Core Content Overview

This report provides an up-to-date analysis of the photovoltaics (PV) market, solar cell and module efficiencies, life cycle assessment (LCA) and sustainability aspects, and price development trends. It is produced by the Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems (ISE) in collaboration with PSE Projects GmbH, with data updated to July 2024.

Main Topics Covered

1. PV Market

• Global PV Market Growth: The PV market has experienced rapid growth, with a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of approximately 26% between 2013 and 2023.
• Production Distribution: In 2023, Asia accounted for 94% of global PV module production, with China contributing about 86%.
• Market Shifts: The market has transitioned from being subsidy-driven to competitive pricing models, with Power Purchase Agreements (PPA) becoming more prevalent.
• Module Sizes: Wafer size increases and improved manufacturing techniques have enabled PV modules with power outputs exceeding 700 W.
• Germany's Market Share: In 2023, Germany accounted for about 5.2% (82.7 GWp) of global cumulative PV installations, with 3.7 million PV systems installed.
• System Types: The majority of PV systems in Germany are building-integrated (e.g., rooftop and balcony systems), with a growing number of ground-mounted and floating PV installations.
• Energy Mix: Renewable energy sources (RES) accounted for 63.3% of Germany's total electricity generation capacity in 2023.

2. Solar Cells / Modules / System Efficiency

• Record Lab Efficiencies:
  • Mono-crystalline: 27.3%
  • Multi-crystalline: 24.4%
  • CIGS: 23.4%
  • CdTe: 21.0%
  • Perovskite: 25.2%
• Commercial Module Efficiencies:
  • Crystalline Silicon (c-Si): 21.6% in Q4-2023 (up from 20.9% in Q4-2022)
  • CIGS and CdTe: Lower average efficiencies, but with notable improvements
• Performance Ratio (PR):
  • In the 1990s: ~70%
  • Today: ~83% (with degradation considered, ~73.6%)
• Energy Payback Time (EPBT):
  • Reduced over the past 24 years due to efficiency gains and material optimization.
  • EPBT for rooftop PV systems in Europe is typically 9.5% shorter than in China due to better grid efficiency.
  • A typical EPBT is around 1.1 years in Northern Europe and 0.9 years in Southern Europe.
  • In Sicily, a rooftop PV system with c-Si modules has an EPBT of about 1 year, producing 20 times the energy used in its production over a 20-year lifespan.

3. Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) and Sustainability Aspects

• Material Usage:
  • Silicon usage has dropped from ~16 g/Wp in 2004 to ~2.2 g/Wp in 2023.
  • Wafer thickness is now around 150 μm.
• Recycling Potential:
  • PV modules can be recycled to recover 100% of materials, with the European WEEE Directive requiring at least 80% of module mass to be recycled.
  • Currently, only glass, frame, and junction box are recycled for economic reasons.
• Environmental Impact:
  • In 2023, PV electricity in Germany avoided about 42 Mio. t CO₂-equivalent GHG emissions.
  • The use of highly transparent glass without antimony is becoming more common in Europe.

4. Price Development

• Historical Price Trends:
  • In 1990, a typical 10–100 kWp PV rooftop system cost around 14,000 €/kWp.
  • By the end of 2023, such systems cost only 10% of that, with a CAGR of -6.8% over 33 years.
• Learning Curve:
  • The Experience Curve (Learning Curve) indicates a 24.4% price reduction with each doubling of cumulative global production.
• Germany's PV Prices:
  • PV rooftop system (3–10 kWp): 1,450 to 2,000 €/kWp (2023)
  • LCOE for PV power plants: 3.1 to 5.7 ct€/kWh (2021)
  • Lowest PV-tender price (2023): 4.33 to 5.17 ct€/kWh
• Global LCoE and Installed Costs:
  • In 2022, the global weighted average LCoE for large PV systems was 0.047 €/kWh.
  • The 5th percentile LCoE was 0.029 €/kWh, while the 95th percentile was 0.114 €/kWh.
  • Global weighted average total installed cost for large PV systems in 2022 was 833 €/kWp.
  • The 5th percentile cost was 541 €/kWp, and the 95th percentile was 1786 €/kWp.
  • LCoE and installed costs have decreased by ~15% and ~12% respectively over the last 12 years.

Key Information and Trends

• Market Dominance: Asia, particularly China, dominates global PV production and market share.
• Efficiency Improvements:
  • Commercial c-Si module efficiency increased from ~16% to ~22% over the last decade.
  • Thin-film technologies (CIGS, CdTe) have also seen efficiency improvements.
• Sustainability:
  • Recycling and reusing materials is becoming more feasible and economically viable.
  • Environmental benefits of PV are significant, with substantial GHG emission reductions in Germany.
• Price Trends:
  • Prices have dropped significantly due to economies of scale and technological advancements.
  • The Learning Curve shows consistent price reductions with increased production.
• System Integration:
  • Integration of volatile electricity into the grid is increasingly important, requiring smart grid solutions and bidirectional charging.
  • Battery storage is becoming more common in residential and commercial PV systems, especially in Germany.

Conclusion

The PV industry continues to grow rapidly, driven by efficiency improvements, cost reductions, and sustainability efforts. Germany remains a key market with a strong focus on residential and small commercial installations, supported by policies and incentives. The shift to competitive pricing and the increasing use of battery storage and smart grid technologies are shaping the future of PV systems. The global market is highly concentrated in Asia, with China leading in production and market share, while Europe is focusing on sustainability and grid integration.