Fraunhofer-全球光伏应用与趋势报告（英文）-2020.9-50页

Photovoltaics Report Summary

Core Content Overview

This report provides an up-to-date analysis of the photovoltaics (PV) market, solar cell and module efficiencies, energy return on investment (EROI), energy payback time (EPBT), inverter technologies, and price developments in the PV industry, with a focus on Germany and global trends.

Key Information and Main Points

1. PV Market

• Global Growth: The PV market has been growing rapidly, with a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 35% between 2010 and 2019 for cumulative installations.
• Production Share:
  • China: 66% of global PV module production in 2019.
  • Rest of Asia-Pacific & Central Asia (ROAP/CA): 18%.
  • Europe: 3%.
  • USA/CAN: 4%.
• Cumulative Installations:
  • Global: Reached 584 GWp by the end of 2019.
  • Germany: Accounted for 49.9 GWp by the end of 2019, representing 8% of the global total.
• Power Generation:
  • Global: 131 GW of PV capacity in 2019, generating 585 TWh of electricity.
  • Germany: PV generated 47.5 TWh in 2019, covering 8.2% of the country's gross electricity demand.
• Market Shifts:
  • Transition from subsidy-driven to competitive pricing models (e.g., Power Purchase Agreements).
  • Increasing importance of batteries and storage solutions for higher self-consumption rates.
• Off-Grid Installations: Decreased over time, from ~1% in 2010 to ~0.6% in 2019.

2. Solar Cells / Modules / System Efficiency

• Lab Cell Efficiencies:
  • Mono-crystalline Silicon: 26.7%
  • Multi-crystalline Silicon: 22.3%
  • CIGS: 23.4%
  • CdTe: 21.0%
  • Perovskite: 21.6%
• Commercial Module Efficiencies:
  • Average Crystalline-Silicon (c-Si): Increased from ~12% to ~17% over the last decade.
  • Super-mono c-Si: ~21%.
  • CdTe: Increased from ~9% to ~19%.
• Performance Ratio (PR):
  • 1990s: Typically ~70%, with wide variance.
  • Today: ~80-90%, with less variance.
• High Concentration PV (HCPV):
  • Achieve module efficiencies up to 38.9%.
  • Lab cell efficiencies reach up to 47.1% with multi-junction technology.

3. Energy Return of Investment (EROI) & Energy Payback Time (EPBT)

• EPBT Development:
  • Global Range: From 0.4 to 1.5 years depending on technology and location.
  • Germany: PV systems produce net clean electricity for ~97% of their lifetime.
• EPBT by Location:
  • EU (e.g., Sicily): ~1 year.
  • China: ~1.5 years.
• Factors Influencing EPBT:
  • Irradiation: Higher irradiation improves EPBT.
  • Grid Efficiency: Better grid efficiency reduces EPBT in upstream production regions, while lower grid efficiency at the installation site increases it.
  • Material Usage: Reduced from ~16 g/Wp to less than 4 g/Wp over 13 years due to technological advancements.

4. Inverters

• Market Share:
  • String Inverters: 61.6% (used in residential and small/medium commercial systems up to 150 kWp).
  • Central Inverters: 36.7% (used in large commercial and utility-scale systems).
  • Micro-Inverters: 1.7% (used on a per-module basis).
  • DC/DC Converters (Power Optimizers): ~5.1% (paired with string inverters).
• Efficiency:
  • String Inverters: Up to 98%.
  • Central Inverters: Up to 98.5%.
  • Micro-Inverters: 90-97%.
  • DC/DC Converters: Up to 99.5%.
• Costs:
  • String Inverters: ~5-17 €-cents/Wp.
  • Central Inverters: ~4 €-cents/Wp.
  • Micro-Inverters: ~29 €-cents/Wp.
  • DC/DC Converters: ~8 €-cents/Wp.

5. Price Development

• Historical Price Trends:
  • Germany: Prices for typical 10-100 kWp rooftop systems dropped from ~14,000 €/kWp in 1990 to ~1,050 €/kWp in 2019.
  • Net-Price Regression: ~92% over 29 years.
  • Annual Price Reduction Rate: ~8.5%.
• Learning Curve:
  • Overall: Module prices decrease by 25% with each doubling of cumulative production over the last 39 years.
  • c-Si: 636 GWp cumulative production by Q4-2019.
  • Thin-Film: 45 GWp cumulative production by Q4-2019.
• PV-Tender Price:
  • Germany: Average quantity-weighted award price of 4.33 ct€/kWh in Feb. 2018.
  • LCOE: 3.7 to 6.8 ct€/kWh for PV power plants (End of 2018).
  • Rooftop System Price: ~1300 €/kWp (End of 2019).

Conclusion

The report highlights the significant growth and technological advancements in the PV industry, emphasizing the shift from subsidies to competitive pricing, the improvement in system efficiency, and the reduction in EPBT due to better irradiation and grid efficiency. It also outlines the evolving inverter market and the consistent price decline driven by economies of scale and innovation.