英文_高盛_尽管宏观存在不确定性_电力需求增长仍在正轨；维持2.5-的复合年增长率_13页_508kb

8 June 2025 - Goldman SachsAmericas Utilities: Power

Summary of Key Takeaways

Goldman Sachs maintains a 2.5% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) estimate for US power demand from 2023 to 2030 despite concerns about macroeconomic uncertainty, including lower industrial production and GDP growth forecasts. The analysis suggests that while there is elevated uncertainty, the overall outlook remains intact due to positive demand trends observed early in 2025, particularly in commercial and residential sectors.

Key Points

• Power Demand Growth: US weather-normalized power demand growth averaged 2.9% in 1Q 2025, outpacing the historical CAGR of 2.5%. Factors driving growth include strong commercial and residential demand, although industrial demand softened slightly in May 2025.
• Macro Forecast Revisions: Goldman Sachs lowered its forecasts for industrial production, real GDP, and unemployment, which impacted industrial and commercial power demand assumptions. However, housing-related forecasts were relatively unchanged, supporting stable residential demand outlooks.
• Sector Exposure: Stocks like XEL, WEC, and SO are most exposed to Commercial and Industrial (C&I) power demand, making them vulnerable during economic downturns. Conversely, companies like NEE, AEE, and ES have higher exposure to residential demand, which is more inelastic.

Sensitivity Analysis

recession scenario forecasting a 1.4% CAGR under a 200bps reduction in GDP growth, highlighting the impact of economic weakness. Power demand is strongly correlated with GDP growth (r-squared of 0.69), meaning reduced economic activity could significantly constrain demand.

Technological Drivers

• Data Centers: Expected to increase global power demand by approximately 1pp to the US power demand CAGR of 2.5%.
• Electric Vehicles (EVs): Estimated EV adoption lower than previously forecasted (now 7% market share by 2030), resulting in a decrease in transportation demand growth projections.

Risk Factors

• Higher than expected line losses in 2024 increased losses by about 11% year-over-year, raising concerns about power distribution efficiency despite projected declines through 2030.
• Significant policy risks, including uncertainty around electrification, regulatory changes, and renewable energy transitions, contribute to overall uncertainty, which could weigh on power demand growth.

Analyst Recommendations and Ratings

• Notable buys include EXXON MOBILE (Ticker: SO), American Electric Power (AEP), and Xcel Energy Inc. (XEL). Neutral ratings are assigned to Duke Energy and Public Service Enterprise Group.
• Hold/Sell ratings are assigned to companies such as Dominion Energy and NextEra Energy, reflecting execution risks and valuation concerns.

Disclosures

Goldman Sachs acknowledges potential conflicts of interest from business relationships with companies covered in research.

This report provides market intelligence supported by detailed analysis and data visualizations, intended to facilitate informed investment decisions.