爱立信：《移动市场报告》十周年特刊（EN）_40页_4mb

Ericsson Mobility Report Summary

Core Content

The Ericsson Mobility Report provides an in-depth analysis of the evolution and future of mobile technology over the past decade, highlighting the transformative impact of mobile networks on society, business, and industry. The report also outlines key forecasts for 2027, emphasizing the role of 5G in shaping the future of connectivity and digital transformation.

Main Points

• 5G Growth: By 2027, 5G subscriptions are forecasted to reach 4.4 billion, accounting for 49% of all mobile subscriptions. This will make 5G the dominant mobile access technology.
• 5G Penetration:
  • North America is projected to have the highest 5G penetration at 90%.
  • China and North East Asia will lead in 5G adoption, with 72% penetration expected by 2027.
• Mobile Broadband Dominance: Mobile broadband subscriptions currently make up 84% of all mobile subscriptions and are expected to grow to 92% by 2027.
• Smartphone Growth: Smartphone subscriptions are expected to reach 7.7 billion by 2027, accounting for 86% of all mobile subscriptions.
• FWA Expansion: Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) is forecasted to offer broadband to 800 million people by 2027 through 230 million connections.
• IoT Growth: Massive IoT will account for 51% of all cellular IoT connections by 2027.
• Traffic Growth: Mobile data traffic has grown 300 times since 2011, driven by smartphones, video streaming, and increased usage.

Key Forecasts

Regional Breakdown

• Sub-Saharan Africa:
  • Mobile broadband subscriptions are expected to reach 78% of all mobile subscriptions by 2027.
  • 5G subscriptions are forecasted to reach 10% of total mobile subscriptions.
• Middle East and North Africa:
  • 4G will be the dominant technology, with 45% of subscriptions.
  • 5G is projected to reach 25% of total mobile subscriptions.
• Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC):
  • 4G will account for 80% of subscriptions at the end of 2021, but 5G is expected to dominate with 80% by 2027.
• India:
  • 4G subscriptions are expected to drop from 68% to 55% of mobile subscriptions by 2027.
  • 5G will represent 39% of mobile subscriptions, with 810 million smartphone subscriptions projected by 2027.
• Central and Eastern Europe:
  • 4G will remain dominant, with 59% of mobile subscriptions in 2027.
  • 5G subscriptions are expected to reach 41%.
• Latin America:
  • 5G is expected to account for 44% of mobile subscriptions by 2027.
  • FWA is forecasted to reach 21 million subscriptions, contributing to economic and social recovery.
• Western Europe:
  • 4G will decline to 16% of subscriptions, with 5G reaching 83%.
• North America:
  • 5G will account for 90% of mobile subscriptions by 2027.

Key Trends and Events

• Disruptive Growth Events:
  • In 2015, the US introduced zero-rated data bundles, significantly boosting traffic.
  • In 2017, India's competitive 4G pricing led to a surge in traffic and 5G adoption.
  • In 2018, China's 4G and 5G growth had a major impact on global traffic figures.
• Network Improvements:
  • Mobile network speeds have increased hundreds of times since 2011.
  • The number of 4G device models has surpassed 20,000.
• 5G FWA and IoT:
  • FWA is emerging as a key enabler for broadband access in rural and underserved areas.
  • Broadband IoT is still growing, while 2G and 3G subscriptions are declining.
• Private Networks:
  • 5G is being used in private networks for industrial applications, such as underground mining in Mexico.
  • These networks support real-time monitoring, remote control, and enhanced worker safety.

Conclusion

The Ericsson Mobility Report highlights the rapid evolution of mobile technology over the past decade, driven by the rise of smartphones, the expansion of 4G, and the emergence of 5G. As the industry moves forward, the report underscores the importance of 5G in enabling new applications, business models, and innovations. The role of mobile technology in economic recovery, social inclusion, and digital transformation is expected to grow significantly, especially in regions like Latin America where 5G and FWA can bridge the digital divide.

The report also emphasizes the need for collaboration between governments, operators, and organizations to ensure sustainable growth and equitable access to digital infrastructure.