爱立信移动市场报告2021年11月（10周年纪念版）（英）-40页_4mb

Ericsson Mobility Report Summary

Core Content

The Ericsson Mobility Report provides an overview of the evolution and future of mobile technology over the past decade, highlighting the transformative impact of 4G and the emerging role of 5G. It emphasizes the rapid growth of mobile subscriptions, the shift in traffic patterns, and the potential for 5G to reshape how we live, work, and connect in the coming years.

Key Trends and Forecasts

5G Growth and Dominance

• By 2027, 5G subscriptions are forecast to reach 4.4 billion, accounting for 49% of all mobile subscriptions.
• 5G subscriptions are expected to grow faster than 4G did during its initial rollout, with North America projected to have the highest 5G penetration at 90% by 2027.
• 5G handsets account for 23% of global mobile device volumes.
• Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) will offer broadband to over 800 million people by 2027 through 230 million connections.
• Massive IoT is expected to make up 51% of cellular IoT connections by 2027.

Mobile Subscriptions and Traffic

• As of Q3 2021, there are 8.1 billion mobile subscriptions, with 92% being mobile broadband.
• Mobile data traffic has grown 300 times since 2011.
• Smartphones account for 77% of all mobile subscriptions in 2021 and are expected to reach 86% by 2027.
• Smartphones and video are the main drivers of mobile data traffic growth.
• 4G subscriptions are projected to peak at 4.7 billion in 2021 and decline to 3.3 billion by 2027 as users migrate to 5G.

Regional Outlook

• Sub-Saharan Africa: Mobile broadband subscriptions are expected to increase to 78% of total mobile subscriptions by 2027, with 5G reaching 10% of mobile subscriptions.
• Middle East and North Africa (MENA): 4G will be the dominant technology in 2027, accounting for 45% of subscriptions, while 5G is expected to reach 25%.
• Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC): Mobile broadband subscriptions will reach 96% by 2027, with 5G expected to account for 80% of total subscriptions.
• India: 4G subscriptions are forecast to decline from 68% to 55%, with 5G representing 39% of mobile subscriptions by 2027.
• Central and Eastern Europe: 4G will remain dominant at 59% of subscriptions in 2027, while 5G will reach 41%.
• Latin America: 5G is expected to represent 44% of mobile subscriptions by 2027, with FWA playing a key role in closing the digital divide.
• North East Asia: 5G subscriptions are projected to reach 1.6 billion, with 72% penetration by 2027.
• Western Europe: 5G subscription penetration is expected to reach 83% by 2027.
• North America: 5G will account for 90% of mobile subscriptions by 2027.

Major Insights

• 5G is accelerating faster than expected, driven by early engagement in China, faster device price reductions, and the availability of multiple device models.
• The pandemic highlighted the importance of a robust digital infrastructure, and 5G is poised to play a critical role in enabling new applications and services for both consumers and industries.
• Disruptive events such as zero-rated data bundles in the US and competitive 4G pricing in India have significantly impacted global mobile traffic growth.
• Mobile broadband has become the dominant form of mobile subscription, with smartphones leading the way in driving data consumption.
• Private networks are emerging as a key enabler for Industry 4.0, with real-world use cases like underground mining operations in Mexico showcasing the potential of 5G in industrial settings.

Key Information

• The report reflects on the 10-year journey of the Ericsson Mobility Report, noting how it has captured the evolution of mobile technology.
• 4G subscriptions grew from 9 million in 2011 to 4.7 billion by the end of 2021.
• Smartphone subscriptions increased from 720 million in 2011 to 6.3 billion in 2021.
• 5G is expected to be the dominant mobile access technology by 2027, with substantial growth in FWA and IoT.
• The digital divide remains a challenge, especially in Latin America, where 244 million people lack internet access.
• FWA is becoming a key solution for expanding broadband access, especially in rural areas, with over 75% of service providers offering FWA services.
• The report underscores the importance of collaboration between governments, organizations, and companies to drive digital inclusion and economic recovery.

Conclusion

The Ericsson Mobility Report highlights the transformative impact of mobile technology over the past decade, from the rise of smartphones to the rapid adoption of 5G. It also outlines the future potential of 5G to drive innovation, enhance connectivity, and support economic and social development. With 5G expected to dominate the mobile landscape by 2027, the report serves as a guide for understanding the trajectory of the mobile industry and its role in shaping the future of digital life.