2009-08-01-奥纬咨询-Growth_Airline_Economic_Analysis_19页_3mb

Growth Airline Economic Analysis Summary

Introduction

This report analyzes the economic performance of growth airlines, comparing unit costs, fuel expenses, and other factors in the 2008-2009 period. Growth airlines exhibit limited overall growth even during economic downturns, with distinct cost structures differing from traditional network carriers. The analysis focuses on domestic US carriers using third-quarter 2008 data to discuss cost gaps.

Key Findings

Unit Cost Comparisons

Value carriers have lower costs than network carriers, with American Airlines and Southwest representing the cost ranges. Network carriers include American, Continental, Delta, Northwest, United, and US Airways. Value carriers include AirTran, Allegiant, Frontier, JetBlue, and Southwest. Average costs per available seat mile (CASM) show increasing gaps over time, indicating that value carriers maintain a cost advantage despite potential network carriers' cost-cutting efforts.

Aircraft and Fuel Costs

Costs vary by aircraft type and stage length, with labor and fuel being major cost components. For CASM, labor accounts for a significant portion: Frontier has the lowest labor percentage at 16%, while Southwest has the highest at 31%. Fuel prices impact profitability, with system-wide and spot prices playing key roles in competitive comparisons.

Fuel and Profitability

Fuel costs are a critical factor affecting airline profitability, with historical data showing volatility. Equal fuel cost assumptions are used for comparisons, but energy market developments highlight risks.

Aircraft Size and Type

Smaller narrowbodies operated by value carriers have lower unit costs, but larger aircraft may offer economies of scale. Regional aircraft are ranked by unit cost in the appendix.

Strategic Outlook

Industry capacity changes suggest no major growth predicted in the short term. The analysis helps position potential business opportunities amid stagnation.

Methodology

The study uses third-quarter 2008 US Department of Transportation data, focusing on air-related costs only to avoid non-flying overheads. Data constraints, such as limited availability for Allegiant, are noted. Historical context is provided for additional insight.

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