2009年-世界发展银行全球_Malaysia_Economic_Monitor_November_2009___Repositioning_for_Growth_82页_3mb

Malaysia Economic Monitor Summary

Core Content

The Malaysia Economic Monitor (MEM) is a new report by the World Bank that reviews recent economic developments in Malaysia, provides an outlook for the economy, and helps inform key policy issues. The first edition, titled Repositioning for Growth, was published in November 2009 and is part of a biannual series.

Main Points

• Economic Recovery: Malaysia emerged from one of the worst export slumps in its history, with manufacturing and exports starting to grow again. The economy is projected to grow at 4.1% in 2010 after a 2.3% contraction in 2009. The medium-term growth outlook is positive, with projections of 5.6% in 2011 and 5.9% in 2012, contingent on a sustained global recovery.

• Resilience: Despite being one of the hardest-hit economies in East Asia, Malaysia showed fundamental resilience. This was due to sound financial supervision, limited exposure to toxic securities, and high international reserves. Household and corporate balance sheets were also strong, helping cushion the downturn.

• Crisis Impact: The crisis was primarily a manufacturing-for-exports crisis, with a significant drop in exports and industrial production. However, private consumption and the service sector remained relatively resilient, with growth stalling but levels remaining intact.

• Unemployment and Social Impact: A small rise in the unemployment rate (peaking at 4% by mid-2009) masked the broader social impact of the crisis. Manufacturing retrenched, especially affecting foreign workers, while services hired. This led to increased poverty in urban areas and challenges for rural livelihoods due to lower commodity prices.

• Policy Response: Accommodative monetary and credit policies, along with fiscal stimulus packages (10% of GDP), helped protect credit flows and boost confidence. These measures were crucial in stabilizing the economy and supporting recovery.

• Challenges for Recovery: The recovery is not yet sustained. While industrial production and exports have increased, the strength of the recovery depends on final demand from advanced economies. Inventories are expected to drive near-term growth, but consumption and investment are likely to pick up slowly.

• Long-term Strategy: To climb the income ladder, Malaysia needs to focus on productivity growth, improving the investment climate, and targeting skill development. A new economic model is being developed with an emphasis on innovation and competitiveness.

Key Issues and Solutions

1. Specializing the Economy Further

• Focus on high value-added, innovation-based sectors such as electronics, resource-based industries, and Islamic finance.
• Build an internally competitive and business-friendly economy with appropriate soft and hard infrastructure to support the knowledge economy.
• Develop technology and innovation policies to nurture growth in existing sectors.

2. Improving the Skills of the Workforce

• There is a need to increase the share of skilled labor from 25% to a more adequate level.
• Enhance education quality and quantity, with a focus on curriculum development, teacher training, and private sector collaboration.
• Address skill shortages, which are a major concern for both manufacturing and services firms.

3. Making Growth More Inclusive

• Implement inclusive policies to support entrepreneurship and risk-taking.
• Strengthen social insurance programs to mitigate unemployment risks and ensure adequate pension coverage.
• Develop targeted social safety nets to protect the vulnerable and reduce fiscal costs.

4. Bolstering Public Finances

• Fiscal consolidation is needed to address the fiscal deficit and improve the revenue base.
• Reduce the role of subsidies in government spending and promote private sector initiative.
• Consider fiscal rules to ensure long-term financial stability.

Outlook and Risks

• Global Outlook: Improved, with the EU and US showing signs of recovery.
• Malaysia’s Outlook: Solidifying with a projected growth of 4.1% in 2010.
• Downside Risks: Include sustained global recovery, policy mismanagement, and reduced private investment.

Conclusion

The Malaysia Economic Monitor outlines a path for repositioning for growth, emphasizing the need for productivity improvement, skill development, and inclusive policies. The report highlights the importance of fiscal discipline, innovation, and sectoral specialization in achieving sustained economic growth and moving up the income ladder.

Key Contributors and Reviewers

• Task Team Leader: Philip Schellekens
• Contributors: Frederico Gil Sander, Yue Li, Magnus Lindelow, Xubei Luo, Chanin Manopiniwes, Martin Reichhuber, Vatcharin Sirimaneetham, Ashley Taylor
• External Contributors: Maslynnawati Ahmad and Hamri Tuah of Khazanah Research and Investment Strategy
• Guidance: Vikram Nehru and Mathew Verghis
• Reviewers: Ahmad Ahsan, Ivailo Izvorski, Manny Jimenez, Jamil Salmi, Xiaoqing Yu, Shahid Yusuf, Manu Bhaskaran

Figures and Tables

• Figure 1.1–1.6: Show confidence, stock markets, GDP growth, industrial production, sales growth, and new orders in the EU and US.
• Figure 1.7–1.10: Highlight the accumulation of foreign reserves, the export slump, and the shift in economic activity.
• Figure 2.1–2.3: Provide insights into unemployment, import demand, and inflation trends.
• Table 2.1–2.3: Summarize the outlook for East Asia and G-3, and show the views of manufacturing firms on the crisis.
• Table 3.1–3.6: Present the long-run and short-run results of private investment, skill shortages, and fiscal deficit data.

Overall Purpose

The MEM serves as a platform for knowledge sharing among internal and external stakeholders, including decision-makers, private sector leaders, think tanks, and journalists. It aims to support innovation and knowledge-driven growth and align with the World Bank’s partnership with Malaysia.