2025-06-13-花旗集团-欧洲汽车制造商_买家罢工_直至收益再次可信_12页_243kb

Summary of Citigroup Research: European Auto Manufacturers

• Date: 13 June 2025.
• Key Challenges:
  • Investors face difficulties due to structural issues, binary tariff considerations, and short-term investment horizons, making it hard to assess value in EU OEMs.
  • Weak Q2 2025 earnings are expected due to unmitigated tariff impacts, with Q1 2025 results offering insufficient detail on future guidance.
  • Ongoing volatility in EBIT and dividends exacerbates investor uncertainty, with negative headlines (e.g., EU OEM market share losses in China, growth of Chinese OEMs, BEV restructuring costs) reinforcing downward pressure on EPS forecasts.
  • Lacking credible earnings guidance reduces investor confidence, and no headlines are "priced in," maintaining a persistent negative malaise through 2025.
• Key Opportunities:
  • Restructuring programs (e.g., MBG, P911, VW) supported by demand cost pressures are expected to improve 2026/2027 EBIT margins relative to 2025 lows.
  • Adaptation to EV and BEV realities, with technological advances (e.g., BMW's Neue Klasse, VW's MEB+), positions EU OEMs closer to best-in-class standards.
  • Low valuations provide a foundation for a re-basing of long-term narratives starting in FY26, focusing on sustainable EBIT margins, higher FCF conversion, and steady cash returns.
• Investment View:
  • Citi recommends European exposure, preferring RNO and VW due to relatively credible FY25 guidance, though other OEMs offer potential long-term value.
  • Avoidance advised until tariff uncertainties are resolved and credible low guidance targets are established.
  • Upside potential exists post-re-basing, addressing low investor expectations and positioning in a momentum-driven market.