2022-04-21-全球能源行业-聚焦氢_替代能源和新兴技术_28页_756kb

报告摘要

Hydrogen (H2) is pivotal for hard-to-abate sectors (steel, ammonia, transportation) post-2030, potentially reducing Russian fossil fuel imports.
Green H2 costs are projected to fall from $3.5-5.0/kg (2020) to $1.7-2.8/kg (2030), driven by renewable energy and electrolyzer cost reductions (expected ~10% annual capex reduction).
Strategic Green Hydrogen Deployment: By 2030, Green H2 could reach ~10 Mtpa, or 0.2% of global energy consumption, with high growth potential in MENA, Southern Europe, and Latin America due to solar cost advantages.
Blue/Turquoise H2: Current regulatory and geopolitical barriers limit adoption, while Carbon Capture & Storage (CCUS) and Fusion Energy remain long-term possibilities with high technical hurdles.

ITM Power (OW): Best positioned for near-term orders and diversification (e.g., Vitol partnership), targeting 2 GW capacity by 2028.
Plug Power (OW): Leading in H2 ecosystem with outsized US growth due to electrolyzer dominance and strategic H2 partnerships.
Nel ASA (UW): Expanding electrolyzer manufacturing capacity but faces execution risks; valuation based on 3x CY’30 EV/Sales with risk factors acknowledged.
Green Hydrogen Systems (UW): Nascent technology and higher R&D costs limit its competitive edge despite potential green H2 production.

Green H2 Costs Decline: 2020: $3.5-5.0/kg → 2030E: $1.7-2.8/kg; Capacity: 2030E: ~102 GW installed, producing 10 Mtpa.

ITM Power: OW, Price Target: GBP470. Key drivers: Lowered electricity costs, high volume growth.
Plug Power: OW, Price Target: USD42; Nominal valuation after market shocks but retains overweight due to US leadership.
Nel ASA: UW, Price Target: NOK11.40; Delivered surprisingly positive EBITDA in 2024 but faces competitive risks.
Green Hydrogen Systems: UW, Price Target: DKK27.00; High valuation multiples due to late industrialization stage and unproven business model.

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