20160518-招商证券_香港_-Morning_Express_13页_387kb

报告摘要

A-share Research Highlights Summary (May 16-18, 2016)

Core Content

This report provides an overview of the Chinese economy and investment strategies for various sectors, particularly the food and beverage industry, as of May 16-18, 2016. It includes macroeconomic data, company performance reviews, and investment recommendations based on current trends and expectations.

Macroeconomic Overview

Industrial Production:
- April 2016 saw a 6.0% YoY growth in above-scale industrial added value, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month and significantly lower than market expectations.
- The slowdown in industrial growth is attributed to cautious enterprise-level capacity expansion due to ongoing short-term policy concerns.
- Industrial production weakness is expected to persist in the second quarter.
Consumer Goods:
- Total retail sales of social consumer goods grew 10.1% YoY, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month.
- Consumption growth is weak due to limited impact from new sector trends and products, necessitating a search for new growth areas.
Fixed Asset Investment:
- Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) grew 10.5% YoY in April, down from 10.7% in the previous month.
- The decline is mainly due to reduced investment in infrastructure and manufacturing sectors.
Real Estate Investment:
- Real estate remains a core driver of investment and economic growth.
- Support from de-inventory policies suggests a moderately improving trend in real estate investment.
Policy Impact:
- Authorities believe the economy will have limited downside even without policy stimulus.
- New construction has created investment inertia, aiding short-term stabilization.
- Long-term focus is on developing a new economy and "human urbanization."

Investment Strategy for Food & Beverage Industry

Short-Term Focus:
- The sector is expected to outperform the overall market due to recovery and warming up after a 2-3 year correction.
- White spirit and dairy sectors are showing signs of recovery.
- Market style has shifted to short-term results, opening a window for value investment.
Long-Term Outlook:
- Consumption upgrade will be a key driver for the sector.
- The era of channel-focused growth has ended, with brand consumption now dominant.
- The long tail effect of the internet supports small and mid-sized companies.

Investment Directions

Chinese Traditional Category:
- Includes white spirit, millet wine, and Chinese spices.
- Focus on increasing brand concentration.
Leisure F&B Category:
- Includes soft drinks and snack foods.
- Emphasis on product innovation and business models.
Overseas Superior Category:
- Includes red wine, milk powder, health products, and beef.
- Attention to overseas deployment quality and cross-border trading capabilities.
Basic Consumer Goods Category:
- Includes grain & oil, meat, and dairy.
- Focus on food safety and health upgrades.

What to Watch

Economic Data

Country	Date	Event	Prior	Forecast
US	2016/05/18	API weekly crude stocks	--	--
China	--	China House Prices YY	4.90%	--
Euro zone	--	Inflation Final MM	1.20%	--
US	--	EIA Weekly Crude Stocks	-3.41mn	--
Japan	2016/05/19	Machinery Orders MM	-9.20%	0.50%
US	--	Initial Jobless Claims	294k	--
US	--	Philly Fed Business Indx	-1.6	4.8
Germany	2016/05/20	Producer Prices MM	--	0.20%
US	--	Existing Home Sales	5.33mn	5.4mn

Company Events

Date	Ticker	Company	Event
2016/05/18	0576 HK	Zhejiang Expressway Co. Ltd. - H Shares	1ST QTR RES (3-MTH-ENDED31/03/16)
2016/05/18	0700 HK	Tencent Holdings Ltd.	1ST QTR RES/DIV (3-MTH-ENDED31/03/16)
2016/05/18	0717 HK	Emperor Capital Group Ltd.	INT RES/INT DIV (6-MTH-ENDED31/03/16)
2016/05/18	0732 HK	Truly International Holdings Ltd.	1ST QTR RES (3-MTH-ENDED31/03/16)
2016/05/18	0738 HK	Le Saunda Holdings Ltd.	RES/FIN DIV (Y.E.29/02/16)
2016/05/18	0903 HK	TPV Technology Ltd.	1ST QTR RES (3-MTH-ENDED31/03/16)
2016/05/18	1093 HK	CSPC Pharmaceutical Group Ltd.	1ST QTR RES (3-MTH-ENDED31/03/16)
2016/05/18	1177 HK	Sino Biopharmaceutical Ltd.	1ST QTR RES/1ST QTR DIV (3-MTH-ENDED31/03/16)
2016/05/18	1882 HK	Haitian International Holdings Ltd.	RES (Y.E.31/12/15)
2016/05/18	3355 HK	Advanced Semiconductor Manufacturing Corporation Ltd. - H Shares	1ST QTR RES (3-MTH-ENDED31/03/16)

Research Coverage

Auto & Auto Parts

Company	Ticker	Rating	Share Price (May 17)	12-Month TP	% Upside	Market Cap (US$mn)	EPS 2015	EPS 2016E	EPS 2017E	P/E 2015	P/E 2016E	P/E 2017E	Analyst
Brilliance China	1114 HK	BUY	HK$7.54	HK$8.2	9	4,908	0.69	0.74	0.84	8.8	8.2	9.0	-
China ZhengTong Auto	1728 HK	BUY	HK$2.91	HK$3.5	20	830	0.29	0.39	0.46	8.0	6.0	6.3	-
Geely Automobile	175 HK	BUY	HK$3.79	HK$4.6	21	4,319	0.26	0.33	0.40	11.7	9.3	9.5	-
BAIC Motor	1958 HK	NEUTRAL	HK$5.46	HK$6.5	19	5,288	0.44	0.52	0.58	9.9	8.5	0.0	-
Great Wall Motor	2333 HK	NEUTRAL	HK$5.7	HK$7.0	23	6,711	0.88	0.94	1.02	5.2	4.9	5.6	-
Fuyao Glass	3606 HK	BUY	HK$17.32	HK$20.0	15	5,605	1.09	1.16	1.31	12.7	12.1	11.0	-
China Harmony Auto	3836 HK	BUY	HK$4.35	HK$6.2	43	884	0.39	0.42	0.50	8.9	8.4	0.0	-
Zhongsheng Group	881 HK	NEUTRAL	HK$3.82	HK$3.8	-1	1,058	0.21	0.25	0.29	14.6	12.3	13.2	-

Oil and Gas

Company	Ticker	Rating	Share Price (May 17)	12-Month TP	% Upside	Market Cap (US$mn)	EPS 2015	EPS 2016E	EPS 2017E	P/E 2015	P/E 2016E	P/E 2017E	Analyst
Sinopec Oilfield Service	1033 HK	NEUTRAL	HK$1.49	HK$1.5	1	4,744	0.01	-0.01	0.05	208.1	N.A.	17.1	-
China Oilfield Services	2883 HK	SELL	HK$6.31	HK$4.3	-32	3,884	0.23	-0.51	0.07	22.0	N.A.	8.1	-
CNOOC	883 HK	BUY	HK$9.23	HK$10.7	16	53,160	0.45	0.01	0.39	16.4	745.2	6.8	-

Property

Company	Ticker	Rating	Share Price (May 17)	12-Month TP	% Upside	Market Cap (US$mn)	EPS 2015	EPS 2016E	EPS 2017E	P/E 2015	P/E 2016E	P/E 2017E	Analyst
China Resources Land	1109 HK	BUY	HK$17.72	HK$23.8	34	15,843	2.59	2.36	2.71	6.8	7.5	5.4	-
Yuzhou Property	1628 HK	BUY	HK$2.14	HK$2.6	21	1,053	0.54	0.52	0.61	4.0	4.1	3.5	-
Country Garden	2007 HK	NEUTRAL	HK$3.01	HK$3.0	-0	8,771	0.54	0.56	0.67	5.6	5.4	4.5	-
Agile Property	3383 HK	BUY	HK$4.18	HK$5.0	20	2,112	0.75	0.78	0.89	5.6	5.4	4.7	-
Greentown China	3900 HK	NEUTRAL	HK$5.23	HK$6.7	28	1,459	0.70	1.24	1.37	7.5	4.2	3.8	-
China Overseas Land	688 HK	NEUTRAL	HK$22.25	HK$28.2	27	28,304	3.47	3.27	3.46	6.4	6.8	6.4	-
CH OVS G OCEANS	81 HK	BUY	HK$2.41	HK$3.3	37	709	0.47	0.63	0.98	5.1	3.8	2.5	-
Shimao Property	813 HK	BUY	HK$9.66	HK$14.0	45	4,327	2.15	2.35	2.72	4.5	4.1	3.6	-
CIFI Holdings	884 HK	BUY	HK$1.76	HK$2.0	14	1,536	0.41	0.44	0.51	4.3	4.0	3.2	-
China Merchants Land	978 HK	BUY	HK$1.16	HK$1.5	29	734	0.06	0.19	0.30	15.5	4.9	3.9	-

Technology, Media & Telecom

Company	Ticker	Rating	Share Price (May 17)	12-Month TP	% Upside	Market Cap (US$mn)	EPS 2015	EPS 2016E	EPS 2017E	P/E 2015	P/E 2016E	P/E 2017E	Analyst
China Telecom	728 HK	NEUTRAL	HK$3.76	HK$4.19	11	6,731	0.25	0.24	0.27	12.0	12.7	13.9	-
China Unicom	762 HK	BUY	HK$8.71	HK$11.55	33	26,907	0.44	0.46	0.53	15.8	15.3	16.4	-
China Mobile	941 HK	BUY	HK$85.7	HK$112.4	31	225,301	5.30	5.58	6.04	12.9	12.4	14.2	-
Wisdom	1661 HK	BUY	HK$2.55	HK$7.0	175	529	0.18	0.22	0.27	11.3	9.4	9.4	-
C CHUANGLIAN ED	2371 HK	BUY	HK$0.3	HK$0.79	163	180	0.01	0.02	0.04	24.0	12.1	9.5	-

Hardware Technology

Company	Ticker	Rating	Share Price (May 17)	12-Month TP	% Upside	Market Cap (US$mn)	EPS 2015	EPS 2016E	EPS 2017E	P/E 2015	P/E 2016E	P/E 2017E	Analyst
Cowell	1415 HK	BUY	HK$2.72	HK$3.97	46	292	0.08	0.08	0.09	4.4	4.4	30.2	-
AAC Technologies	2018 HK	BUY	HK$60.65	HK$64.0	6	9,608	2.53	3.10	3.61	19.2	15.8	16.8	-
Coolpad	2369 HK	SELL	HK$1.28	HK$0.56	-56	709	-0.07	0.07	0.07	N.A.	18.3	18.3	-
Sunny Optical	2382 HK	BUY	HK$24.95	HK$24.2	-3	3,531	0.71	0.98	1.23	28.1	20.6	20.3	-
TCL Comm	2618 HK	NEUTRAL	HK$5.02	HK$4.96	-1	793	0.85	0.77	0.83	5.9	6.5	6.0	-
PAX Global	327 HK	BUY	HK$6.43	HK$10.04	56	913	0.56	0.58	0.70	11.5	11.1	9.2	-
Truly	732 HK	NEUTRAL	HK$2.91	HK$1.98	-32	1,091	0.29	0.29	0.31	10.0	10.0	9.4	-

Pharmaceutical & Healthcare

Company	Ticker	Rating	Share Price (May 17)	12-Month TP	% Upside	Market Cap (US$mn)	EPS 2015	EPS 2016E	EPS 2017E	P/E 2015	P/E 2016E	P/E 2017E	Analyst
3SBio	1530 HK	BUY	HK$8.93	HK$12.0	34	2,897	0.25	0.34	0.43	35.7	26.3	20.8	-
TRAD CHI MED	570 HK	BUY	HK$3.63	HK$5.8	60	2,007	0.17	0.27	0.31	17.1	10.9	11.5	-
Sinco	6833 HK	BUY	HK$0.67	HK$1.1	64	140	0.07	0.09	0.12	9.6	7.4	5.8	-
China Medical System	867 HK	BUY	HK$10.48	HK$14.0	34	3,363	0.40	0.54	0.68	21.0	15.7	15.2	-
China Biologic Products	CBPO US	BUY	US$113.4	US$144.0	27	2,912,679	3.68	4.26	5.33	30.8	26.6	20.3	-
China Construction Bank	939 HK	BUY	HK$4.63	HK$6.9	49	149,324	0.58	0.58	0.60	8.6	8.1	9.1	-

Insurance

Company	Ticker	Rating	Share Price (May 17)	12-Month TP	% Upside	Market Cap (US$mn)	EPS 2015	EPS 2016E	EPS 2017E	P/E 2015	P/E 2016E	P/E 2017E	Analyst
AIA	1299 HK	BUY	HK$43.85	HK$55.69	27	68,129	0.34	0.39	0.43	16.6	14.5	102.0	-
NCI	1336 HK	BUY	HK$24.65	HK$32.34	31	9,921	3.35	4.31	5.09	5.9	4.6	4.8	-
China Reinsurance	1508 HK	BUY	HK$1.74	HK$2.39	37	9,535	0.22	0.14	0.18	6.3	10.0	9.7	-
Ping An insurance group	2318 HK	BUY	HK$34.0	HK$43.89	29	80,176	3.08	3.53	3.91	8.8	7.8	8.7	-
PICC P&C	2328 HK	NEUTRAL	HK$13.4	HK$14.62	9	25,632	1.40	1.73	2.00	7.7	6.3	6.7	-
CPIC	2601 HK	BUY	HK$25.8	HK$39.24	52	30,167	1.94	2.18	2.43	10.6	9.6	10.6	-
China Life	2628 HK	BUY	HK$16.8	HK$22.8	36	61,256	1.56	1.67	1.85	8.6	8.1	9.1	-
CHINA TAIPING	966 HK	BUY	HK$14.5	HK$23.25	60	6,723	2.31	2.38	2.66	6.3	6.1	5.5	-

Broker

Company	Ticker	Rating	Share Price (May 17)	12-Month TP	% Upside	Market Cap (US$mn)	EPS 2015	EPS 2016E	EPS 2017E	P/E 2015	P/E 2016E	P/E 2017E	Analyst
GF Sec	1776 HK	BUY	HK$17.1	HK$21.19	24	16,811	1.83	1.09	1.36	7.5	12.7	12.6	-
CITICS	6030 HK	BUY	HK$16.0	HK$18.78	17	25,009	1.71	1.08	1.23	7.5	12.0	13.0	-
HTS	6837 HK	BUY	HK$12.1	HK$17.09	41	17,953	1.50	0.93	1.14	6.5	10.5	10.6	-