2022-02-07-瑞士信贷集团-元宇宙_下一代互联网指南_188页_10mb
报告摘要
Global TMT Sector and Metaverse Summary
Core Concept of the Metaverse
The metaverse is envisioned as the next-generation internet, characterized by a more spatially immersive, compelling, and frictionless 3D web experience accessible through VR and AR technologies as well as traditional devices. It is defined by three key aspects: presence, interoperability, and standardisation. The report outlines five key vectors for metaverse development: hardware, infrastructure, content, community, and currency/settlement mechanism.
Key Use Cases
The metaverse is expected to expand into various use cases, including:
- Gaming and entertainment
- Work collaboration and social media
- Virtual worlds, education, and fitness
- Industrial applications such as healthcare, real estate, and manufacturing
These use cases are anticipated to enhance user experiences and drive new opportunities for the TMT sector.
Sector Implications
The metaverse is expected to have transformative effects across the TMT sector, particularly in the following areas:
1. Content
- Internet and media companies are well-positioned to benefit from increased user engagement and time spent on platforms.
- Key players include Tencent, NetEase, Microsoft, Google, Sony, Walt Disney, Warner Music, and Endeavor.
- The metaverse is expected to drive advancements in online property monetisation, advertising, and consumer and enterprise social connectivity.
2. Hardware and Semiconductors
- AR/VR devices are a near-term focus, with an estimated 48% shipment CAGR and 36% revenue CAGR leading to 42 million units and $12.6 billion revenue by 2025.
- Semiconductor companies are poised to benefit from increased compute demands, with key players including Nvidia, Intel, Marvell, Micron, TSMC, Samsung, Mediatek, Novatek, and AMD.
- The report highlights hardware upgrades, better sensing technologies, and machine learning integration as critical for metaverse development.
3. Telecom and Infrastructure
- Telecom companies and network infrastructure providers are expected to see significant growth in data usage and traffic, with estimates suggesting a 20x increase in data usage by 2032.
- Cloud, data centers, and network equipment will be central to supporting the metaverse's compute and bandwidth needs.
- Key beneficiaries include Comcast, China Mobile, KPN, Arista, Cisco, Inspur, GDS, Quanta, Accton, and Wiwynn.
Key Financial Projections
- AR/VR Headset Market: Projected to reach 42 million units and $12.6 billion revenue by 2025.
- Data Usage Growth: Expected to increase by 37% CAGR over the next decade, leading to 20x higher usage by 2032.
- Semiconductor Demand: The metaverse is projected to drive a 100-300bps tailwind to the TMT sector's base forward revenue CAGR of 6-8%.
Stock Picks and Investment Ratings
Credit Suisse has identified key stock beneficiaries across the metaverse ecosystem, with the following highlights:
| Company | Ticker | Sector | Target Price | Upside % | Investment Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goertek | 002241 CH | Assembly | 47.07 | 44.3 | OUTPERFORM |
| Luxshare | 002475 CH | Assembly | 46.66 | 21.3 | OUTPERFORM |
| Disney | DIS US | Content | 142.02 | 53.5 | OUTPERFORM |
| Endeavor | EDR US | Content | 31.24 | 18.4 | OUTPERFORM |
| Sony | 6758 JP | Content | 12,600 | 34.9 | OUTPERFORM |
| Warner Music | WMG US | Content | 41.98 | 19.1 | OUTPERFORM |
| Accton | 2345 TT | Data Center Hardware | 265.00 | 24.5 | OUTPERFORM |
| Arista | ANET US | Data Center Hardware | 122.32 | 35.7 | OUTPERFORM |
| Cisco Systems | CSCO US | Data Center Hardware | 55.15 | 32.4 | OUTPERFORM |
| Inspur | 000977 CH | Data Center Hardware | 33.77 | 37.7 | OUTPERFORM |
| Wiwynn | 6669 TT | Data Center Hardware | 996 | 22.5 | OUTPERFORM |
| Nvidia | NVDA US | Semiconductor | 243.19 | 64.5 | OUTPERFORM |
| Micron | MU US | Semiconductor | 81.17 | 60.2 | OUTPERFORM |
| Marvell | MRVL US | Semiconductor | 71.10 | 47.7 | OUTPERFORM |
| Intel | INTC US | Semiconductor | 48.01 | 45.8 | OUTPERFORM |
| TSMC | 2330 TT | Semiconductor | 636.00 | 25.8 | OUTPERFORM |
| Win Semi | 3105 TT | Semiconductor | 335.50 | 26.7 | OUTPERFORM |
| Mediatek | 2454 TT | Semiconductor | 1,075.00 | 30.2 | OUTPERFORM |
| Novatek | 3034 TT | Display | 471.00 | 55.0 | OUTPERFORM |
| ASML | ASML.AS | Semiconductor | 564.20 | 67.5 | OUTPERFORM |
| Chroma | 2360 TT | Display | 212.00 | 20.3 | OUTPERFORM |
| Realtek | 2379 TT | Semiconductor | 526.00 | 8.4 | NEUTRAL |
| Aspeed | 5274 TWO | Semiconductor | 3,030.00 | 22.1 | OUTPERFORM |
| Alchip | 3661 TT | Semiconductor | 935.00 | 34.8 | OUTPERFORM |
| ASE | 3711 TT | Semiconductor | 98.80 | 21.5 | OUTPERFORM |
| Amkor | AMKR OQ | Semiconductor | 20.96 | 28.8 | NEUTRAL |
| Tokyo Electron | 8035 T | Semiconductor | 56,040.00 | -48.4 | UNDERPERFORM |
| SCREEN Holdings | 7735 T | Semiconductor | 11,530.00 | -42.8 | UNDERPERFORM |
| Advantest | 6857 T | Semiconductor | 9,480.00 | -42.2 | OUTPERFORM |
Conclusion
The metaverse is poised to revolutionize the TMT sector, driving growth in hardware, infrastructure, content, community, and currency. Companies involved in AR/VR technology, semiconductors, telecom, and data centers are expected to benefit significantly from the increased demand for compute power, bandwidth, and improved user experiences. The report provides a detailed outlook on the future of the metaverse and identifies key players across the TMT ecosystem that are well-positioned for growth.
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