2021-11-11-牛津经济研究院-Eurozone_Rising_headwinds_will_test_post-winter_optimism_5页_269kb

Rising headwinds will test post-winter optimism in the Eurozone economy, despite positive investor confidence signals from the ZEW and Sentix indices in November. This optimism stems from falling market inflation expectations, aligning with the view that current inflation pressures are transitory and expected to ease materially through H2 2021 or 2022. However, the economic outlook remains challenging due to ongoing supply bottlenecks, high input prices, and energy costs, leading to a second monthly drop in industrial production and sustained high consumer inflation. COVID-19 risks are returning with localized measures, but vaccination rates mitigate health concerns; however, this scenario is still a risk. Forecasts indicate inflation will strengthen but slow by Q4 2022, with GDP growth projected at 5.1% for 2021 and 4.2% for 2022, facing downside risks from prolonged supply issues or consumer confidence impacts.

Key insights include the upside surprise in investor sentiment surveys, confirmation of transitory inflation, and a slowdown in economic momentum starting Q4. Headwinds such as supply chain disruptions and energy prices are set to limit growth until at least the end of 2021, while upcoming data focuses on employment and GDP estimates. Downside risks remain skewed, with potential for slower recovery if COVID or supply factors worsen.