2021-09-26-牛津经济研究院-UK_MPC_continues_to_shift_in_a_hawkish_direction_6页_269kb

报告摘要

Weekly Economic Briefing | UK Summary

Core Content

The UK's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has continued to show a hawkish shift in its stance, with the minutes of the September meeting indicating a potential rate hike early next year. However, the report suggests that markets may be overreacting, as most MPC members still believe high inflation is likely to be transitory and demand growth is softening. The key focus of the report is on the economic indicators and policy outlook for the UK.

Main Points

MPC Policy Shift: The September MPC minutes were more hawkish, leading markets to price in a 15bp rate hike by the February 2022 meeting. However, the report argues that the MPC is not yet ready to tighten policy significantly.
Furlough Scheme: Dave Ramsden and Michael Saunders voted to end gilt purchases immediately, but the chances of other members following suit are low. The slow decline in furlough use raises concerns about the potential for a sharper rise in unemployment when the scheme ends.
Labour Market: The ONS Business Insights and Conditions Survey (BICS) showed that 5.8% of jobs were still furloughed in the period August 23 to September 5. This equates to approximately 1.4 million jobs. The MPC is worried about the impact of prolonged furlough use on employment.
Inflation and Demand: The report highlights that while inflation remains high, it is expected to be temporary. Consumer confidence fell sharply in September, and demand growth is clearly softening, which may affect the pace of economic recovery.
Economic Data: The September flash PMI composite index dropped to a seven-month low of 54.1, and manufacturing output fell to 51.8, just barely in expansionary territory. Input costs and selling prices hit record highs, indicating ongoing inflationary pressures.
Policy Uncertainty: The MPC's decision to continue with gilt purchases is due to uncertainty in the labour market. The minutes did not provide clarity on individual members' views, making it difficult to gauge the full extent of the committee's split.

Key Forecasts

GDP Growth: Expected to rise to 6.9% in 2021 and 6.7% in 2022, with a gradual slowdown thereafter.
Inflation (CPI): Projected to reach 3.5% in 2021 and decline to 2.0% by 2023.
Interest Rates: Short-term rates are expected to remain low through 2022, with a gradual increase to 0.31% by 2024.
Exchange Rates: The US$ per £ is expected to rise slightly to 1.43, while the Euro per £ is expected to remain stable around 1.17.

Week Ahead Highlights

Mortgage Approvals: Expected to rise from 75,152 in July to 80,000 in August as buyers prepare for the end of the stamp duty holiday.
Mortgage Lending: Net lending is expected to return to normal levels of around £1.0bn in August after a net repayment in July.
Consumer Credit: Net unsecured lending is expected to rise from £0.0bn to £0.6bn in August, following stronger CHAPS data.
GDP Release: The Quarterly National Accounts for Q2 are expected to remain unchanged at 4.8% q/q growth. The release will incorporate annual balancing and methodological improvements, including double deflation.
Manufacturing PMI: The final September reading is expected to confirm the flash PMI of 56.3, showing a continued slowdown due to input shortages and transport bottlenecks.

Summary of Key Indicators

Supply Constraints: Persistent across multiple sectors, leading to conflicting signals of weak activity and strong inflationary pressures.
Consumer Confidence: Fell sharply in September, with concerns about personal finances and the economic outlook.
Government Spending: Expected to rise in 2022, with potential impacts on the economy and public finances.
Labour Market: Uncertainty remains about the resolution of the furlough situation, which could affect employment and inflation.

Conclusion

The report suggests that while the MPC is showing a more hawkish stance, the economic environment remains uncertain. The committee is likely to maintain its current policy until more clarity is provided in the coming months, particularly around the labour market and inflation trends. The upcoming data releases will be crucial in shaping future policy decisions.

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