2025-06-12-花旗集团-萨索尔有限公司（SOLJ）_萨索尔有限公司（SOLJ.J）模型更新_12页_443kb

Citigroup Research updates its model for Sasol Ltd (SOLJ.J), maintaining a "Buy" recommendation with an unchanged target price of R120. The analysis adjusts FY2025 earnings per share downward due to weaker Mining and Fuels performance but accounts for higher Chemicals Africa margins. Key financial projections show declining sales and net income initially, with net margins turning around to positive growth post-2024. Valuation metrics indicate a PE ratio of 2.4 by 2027, supporting a 120 ZAR target based on a WACC of 10%, terminal growth of 1.5%, and average ZAR of 17.5. The investment thesis highlights potential for Secunda recovery and sustainable growth under the new CEO, despite risks such as lower oil and chemical prices, a stronger rand, prolonged operational underperformance, or sub-optimal capital allocation. Upside risks include higher prices and rand depreciation. Sasol is an integrated energy and chemicals company, listed on the JSE and NYSE.