2014年-世界发展银行全球_Impact_of_Export_Destinations_on_Firm_Performance_29页_992kb

Summary of "Impact of Export Destinations on Firm Performance"

Core Content

This working paper investigates the impact of export destinations on firm performance in Turkey, focusing on productivity, employment, and wages. It utilizes a combination of propensity score matching (PSM) and difference-in-differences (DID) methods to analyze firm-level data from 2005 to 2010, comparing firms that export to high-income destinations (HID), low-income destinations (LID), and non-exporters.

The study is based on data from the Turkish Statistical Institute (Turkstat), including firm-level export records and Structural Business Surveys (SBS). The data shows a significant structural shift in Turkish export destinations over the 2002–2011 period, with exports to LID increasing sharply while exports to HID remained relatively stable, especially after the 2009 global crisis.

Main Findings

1. Export Entry and Productivity:

   • Export entry has a positive causal effect on firm total factor productivity (TFP) and employment, and this effect increases over time as firms continue to export.
   • The wage effect of export entry is moderate and delayed, indicating that productivity gains do not immediately translate into higher wages.

2. Impact by Destination Type:

   • Exporting to high-income destinations yields significantly higher productivity and wage gains compared to exporting to low-income destinations.
   • Firms exporting to low-income destinations do not show statistically significant improvements in TFP or wages, although they still experience similar employment effects to those exporting to high-income destinations.

3. Comparative Analysis of Exporters:

   • Firms that start exporting to both HID and LID show the highest performance gains in terms of employment, TFP, and sales.
   • Firms that continue exporting to HID exhibit greater improvements in TFP and wages than those that continue to export to LID.
   • There is no significant difference in performance between firms that continue to export to HID and those that switch from LID to HID.

4. Policy Relevance:

   • The findings suggest that increasing exports to low-income destinations cannot substitute for the benefits of exporting to high-income destinations.
   • The paper emphasizes the importance of export diversification and the need for policy support to enhance the productivity and wage gains associated with exporting to more developed markets.

Key Information

• Data Sources: Turkish Statistical Institute (Turkstat) firm-level export database and Structural Business Surveys (SBS).
• Sample Period: 2005–2010.
• Observations: Approximately 94,000 firm-country-year combinations.
• Methodology:
  • Propensity Score Matching (PSM) to control for observable firm characteristics.
  • Difference-in-Differences (DID) to account for time-invariant and trend effects.
• Variables Analyzed:
  • Employment, TFP, total sales, and average wages.
  • Firm characteristics: size, sector, region, ownership, R&D intensity, government support, and capital intensity.
• Destination Types:
  • High-Income Destinations (HID): Countries with higher per-capita income.
  • Low-Income Destinations (LID): Countries with lower per-capita income.
• Key Results:
  • Exporters are more productive, larger, and pay higher wages than non-exporters.
  • Continuing to export has a stronger positive impact on firm outcomes than starting to export.
  • Exporting to HID is more beneficial for firm productivity and wages than exporting to LID.
  • Firms exporting to both HID and LID show the highest performance gains.

Policy Implications

• The study highlights the importance of export destinations in shaping firm performance.
• Exporting to high-income destinations is associated with greater productivity and wage improvements, suggesting that export diversification should not be pursued at the expense of established high-income markets.
• The findings support the idea that learning-by-exporting (LBE) is more effective when firms export to higher-income countries, due to exposure to advanced technologies and higher-quality standards.
• Policy makers should consider the long-term benefits of exporting to HID and the potential limitations of LID in terms of firm performance gains.

Structure of the Paper

• Section I: Introduction and background on the export-productivity relationship.
• Section II: Description of the data used, including changes in export destinations.
• Section III: Preliminary analysis showing differences in firm performance across export behaviors.
• Section IV: Evaluation methodology, including PSM and DID.
• Section V: Results of the analysis.
• Section VI: Conclusion and policy discussion.