2025-09-01-美联储-2019年以来美联储工作人员通胀预测错误回顾（英）页_31页_2mb

Retrospective on Federal Reserve Staff Inflation Forecast Errors Since 2019

The paper examines how the Federal Reserve staff underestimated inflation forecasts after the COVID-19 outbreak, from 2020 to 2024, with errors persisting until late 2022. The surge in inflation was not fully anticipated, as staff underestimated both the size and persistence of supply-demand imbalances, driven by unexpected supply shocks and rapid demand recovery.

Key findings include the use of a pre-pandemic Phillips curve model, which assumed stable long-term inflation and weak inflation sensitivity to resource utilization. Forecasts consistently missed due to factors like inadequate measurement of supply disruptions, persistent unexplained wage growth, and nonlinear effects in labor and product markets. Staff adapted by incorporating new data, such as shipping costs and market indicators, and refining models to better capture disruptions.

Robust elements of the framework were the anchoring of long-term inflation expectations and the recognition that inflation dynamics are influenced by shifts in supply and demand. The staff's best explanation attributes inflation to large, persistent supply-side reductions and surging demand, leading to gradual unwinding. However, uncertainty remains about the quantitative contributions of various drivers, and lessons from this episode highlight the challenges of limited historical experience in forecasting.