2025-06-02-IMF-海地_工作人员监督方案下的首次审查新闻稿；员工报告（英）_67页_1mb

报告摘要

HAITI: FIRST REVIEW UNDER THE STAFF-MONITORED PROGRAM SUMMARY

Core Content

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has approved the First Review Under the Staff-Monitored Program (SMP) with Haiti. This review was conducted in the context of ongoing economic and security challenges, with the goal of supporting Haiti's economic policy objectives, building a track record of reform, and improving macroeconomic stability. The review, which took place from March 10–19, 2025, and concluded on April 28, 2025, found that program implementation has been broadly satisfactory, with all quantitative targets and most indicative targets met.

Main Views and Key Information

Security Situation and Economic Impact

Haiti faces a dire security crisis with increased gang violence, which has worsened economic conditions and constrained reform efforts.
The Kenya-led Multinational Security Support Mission (MSS) has expanded its personnel but still lacks sufficient funding and resources.
The US has reconfirmed support for the MSS and signed waivers to continue aid flows, which could be affected by the expiring Temporary Protected Status (TPS) for Haitian migrants by August 3, 2025.
Security restoration is identified as a priority for economic recovery and reform implementation.

Economic Outlook and Risks

The macroeconomic outlook remains uncertain, with downward risks due to reduced remittances, tariff increases, and lower aid flows.
GDP growth was revised down to -1% for FY2025 from +1.5% projected at the time of the SMP negotiation.
Inflation remains high at 28.4% in February 2025, driven by supply-side shocks from insecurity.
The current account deficit narrowed to 0.6% of GDP in FY2024, but is expected to improve to a surplus of 0.2% of GDP in FY2025.
Debt sustainability remains a concern, with high risk ratings both externally and overall, due to downward revisions in economic projections.

Program Implementation

Fiscal policy has been on track, with monetary financing of the budget at zero and revenue mobilization improving due to enhanced tax administration and customs verification.
Net international reserves (NIR) reached US$1.159 billion in December 2024, up from US$920 million in September 2024.
Public debt is at 14.6% of GDP, the lowest in the Latin America and Caribbean region, largely due to the settlement of Petrocaribe debt in January 2024.
Structural benchmarks were largely met, with six out of seven implemented, and one expected by June 2025 due to capacity constraints.

Policy Recommendations

Advance governance and anti-corruption reforms, in line with the Governance Diagnostic Report.
Strengthen revenue collection and social spending, particularly through the Food Shock Window.
Complete the FY2023 audit of the Central Bank of Haiti (BRH) by August 2025.
Implement risk-based foreign exchange interventions.
Continue timely data reporting to the IMF and enhance transparency in public finance.

Support and Collaboration

The IMF will continue to coordinate with Haiti's development partners, especially on governance and capacity development.
Grants rather than non-concessional loans are recommended to ensure debt sustainability and financial stability.
A government-led strategy is needed to enhance economic resilience, with international financial support being critical for sustained development.

Key Figures and Data

Net International Reserves (NIR) increased from US$920 million in September 2024 to US$1.159 billion in December 2024.
Gross International Reserves stood at US$2.7 billion, equivalent to seven months of imports.
Monetary financing of the budget was reduced to zero in FY2024, thanks to the SMP engagement.
Remittances grew rapidly in FY2025, reaching US$3.5 billion, but are expected to drop significantly in 2026 due to TPS expiration.
Inflation was 28.4% in February 2025, much higher than the average of 5.5% in other Caribbean countries.
Current account balance for FY2025 is projected to turn into a surplus of 0.2% of GDP.
GDP growth is expected to be 1.5% in the medium term, but could be lower if political and social instability persists.

Conclusion

The First Review of the SMP with Haiti confirms that the program has been effectively implemented, with positive outcomes in fiscal and monetary policy, revenue management, and reserve accumulation. However, security remains a critical challenge, and external support is essential for continued progress and economic recovery. The IMF encourages the Haitian authorities to maintain their commitment to the SMP, strengthen governance, and ensure transparency in public financial management.