2013年-世界发展银行全球_Turkey___Managing_Labor_Markets_through_the_Economic_Cycle_ADMIN_Jun-25-193819-2018_Conflict_45页_1mb

TURKEY: MANAGING LABOR MARKETS THROUGH THE ECONOMIC CYCLE

Overview

The Turkish economy was significantly impacted by the global economic crisis but recovered quickly and strongly. Growth resumed in the last quarter of 2009 and reached 9% in 2010 and 8.5% in 2011. Despite being one of the hardest-hit countries in 2009, Turkey was also among the fastest to recover. However, recent growth has slowed due to the Eurozone crisis and tighter monetary policies, with expectations of around 3% growth in 2012 and a return to 5% over the medium term.

The Jobs Challenge in Turkey

Turkey's labor market continues to face structural challenges, including persistently low employment rates and low labor productivity. Key issues include:

• Low Employment Rates: Less than half of the working-age population (15-64 years) was employed as of mid-2012, with employment rates among women and youth being particularly low.
• Low Labor Productivity: Job informality (42% of workers in 2011) contributes to lower productivity compared to OECD and other peer countries.
• Demographic Factors: The working-age population (WAP) continues to grow, increasing the number of young and low-skilled workers seeking non-agricultural jobs.
• Education Gap: Half of the WAP still have less than basic education, with 64% of the jobless and 65% of the informal workers in this category.
• Skills Barriers: The skills bar in formal non-agricultural sectors is increasing, making it harder to create formal jobs and reduce unemployment.

Labor Markets Through the Recent Cycle

• The crisis affected households mainly through reduced labor incomes, but the overall impact on jobs was relatively mild.
• Unemployment Increase: Unemployment rose due to increased duration and job losses, but household activity rates (added-worker effect) helped mitigate the impact on total employment.
• Formal vs. Informal Sector: Job losses primarily affected formal employees, while the informal sector served as a buffer. However, formal wage jobs recovered quickly after the crisis.
• Minimum Wage Increase: The minimum wage increased significantly in 2009, reaching 71% of the median wage (highest in OECD), which may have led to more layoffs.
• Social Assistance: The Green Card Program (GCP) provided healthcare protection for poor informal workers, while other social assistance programs offered limited support.

Policies During the Business Cycle

• Pre-Crisis Reforms: A labor market reform reduced non-wage labor costs and laid the groundwork for expanding active labor market programs (ALMP).
• Crisis Response Measures: Included expanded short-time work schemes (STW), vocational training for the unemployed, public works programs, support for SMEs, and tax reductions for hard-hit sectors.
• Unemployment Insurance (UI): Provided limited support due to strict qualification rules and low benefits. No major changes were made to the UI scheme during the crisis.
• Unemployment Assistance (UA): Could be introduced as a targeted complement to UI for those not qualifying, with a focus on those with some formal sector attachment.
• Policy Adjustments: Efforts to expand ALMP, improve flexible contracting, and reorganize employment services were initiated to enhance responsiveness to future crises and support job creation.

Options to Strengthen Labor Market Management

• Policy Responsiveness: Policies should be timely, well-targeted, and temporary, with adjustments based on labor market conditions.
• Articulation of Policies: Integration of social insurance, social assistance, ALMP, and labor regulations into a cohesive system.
• Flexible Labor Markets: Encouraging flexible contracting, improving enforcement of labor laws, and reducing informality through awareness campaigns.
• Temporary Adjustments: Adjusting existing programs (e.g., extending UI eligibility periods) temporarily, with activation measures to prevent moral hazard.
• Income Protection Policies: Enhancing the system to include UI, UA, public works, and cash transfers not tied to employment status.

Options to Enhance Productive Employment

• Skill Development: Upgrading the skills of low-skilled workers through activation packages, vocational training, and life skills training.
• Targeted Support: Designing employment support services to address barriers like information, access to capital, and mobility, in partnership with public agencies.
• Childcare Subsidies: Recognizing women's mobility and time constraints by providing targeted childcare support.
• Service Delivery: Reorganizing service delivery around job and vocational counselors to improve employability assessments, direct jobseekers to appropriate services, and monitor progress.
• Private Sector Involvement: Designing selection and contracting processes for private providers to incentivize support for low-skilled workers.
• Employment Services: Improving the functioning of the labor market through better employment services and reducing informality.

Conclusion

Turkey has demonstrated resilience in managing labor markets through the economic cycle, but structural challenges remain. Enhancing the responsiveness of policies, improving income protection, and focusing on skill development and employment activation are crucial to addressing both short-term crisis impacts and long-term structural issues. The new National Employment Strategy aims to tackle these challenges by improving labor market flexibility, aligning education with market needs, and strengthening the link between social protection and employment.