2013年-世界发展银行全球_Turkey___Managing_Labor_Markets_Through_the_Economic_Cycle_89页_2mb

Summary of the Document: Turkey: Managing Labor Markets Through the Economic Cycle

Core Content

This document is a joint study by the World Bank and the Ministry of Development (MoD) on how Turkey's labor market was affected by the global economic crisis and its recovery, and how policies can be adjusted to manage labor markets effectively through the economic cycle and address the structural jobs challenge.

Main Viewpoints

• Economic Impact of the Crisis:
  The Turkish economy was significantly affected by the global crisis, with reduced labor incomes impacting households. However, the recovery was rapid, with growth reaching 9% in 2010 and 8.5% in 2011. Despite this, the employment rate remained low, particularly among women and youth.

• Labor Market Characteristics:

  • Employment rates for working-age women were below 30%, the lowest in the OECD.
  • About 35% of youth (15-24 years) were inactive, with a high share of women.
  • Job informality affected 42% of workers in 2011, contributing to lower labor productivity compared to OECD countries.

• Policy Responses:

  • Turkey introduced a crisis-response package in 2009, including expanded short-time work schemes, vocational training, public works, SME support, and subsidies for hiring new entrants.
  • The minimum wage was increased significantly during the crisis, which may have protected low-wage earners but also led to job losses.
  • The Green Card Program (GCP) helped protect healthcare utilization among poor informal workers.

• Structural Challenges:

  • A large stock of low-skilled workers and the increasing demand for skills are key structural issues.
  • The demographic dividend and the need for improving skills and education are crucial for long-term growth and employment.

• Policy Recommendations:

  • Strengthen the responsiveness of labor and social protection policies to future crises.
  • Improve the policy mix by focusing on employment stabilization during downturns and job creation during recovery.
  • Enhance income protection through a more comprehensive system that includes unemployment insurance, unemployment assistance, and public works.
  • Promote flexible contracting, better enforcement of labor laws, and awareness-raising to reduce informality.
  • Improve the effectiveness of employment services and vocational training for low-skilled workers, especially women and youth.

Key Information

• Pre-crisis Trends:

  • Employment rates were low, especially for women and youth.
  • Job informality was high, affecting labor productivity.

• Crisis Impact:

  • The crisis led to job losses, particularly in the formal sector.
  • Informal workers served as a buffer, but their incomes were lower.
  • The minimum wage increased, affecting earnings and employment dynamics.

• Recovery:

  • The formal sector recovered strongly after the crisis.
  • Unemployment rates increased during the crisis but decreased afterward.
  • Earnings inequality increased during the recovery period.

• Policy Measures:

  • The expansion of Active Labor Market Programs (ALMP) and the introduction of the Green Card Program (GCP) were key responses.
  • The unemployment insurance (UI) system was limited in coverage and support.
  • The introduction of the Integrated Social Assistance Information System (ISAIS) is expected to improve the effectiveness of social assistance.

• Options for Improvement:

  • Enhancing the flexibility of labor markets through better contracting rules and support for SMEs.
  • Increasing the coverage and effectiveness of unemployment insurance and assistance.
  • Strengthening social protection and aligning it with employment goals.
  • Improving the skills of the workforce through targeted training and education programs.

Key Tables and Figures

• Table 1: Highlights the impact of the crisis on households, mainly through reduced labor incomes.

• Table 2: Shows that formal wage workers lost jobs but had higher earnings, while informal workers had smaller paychecks.

• Table 3: Provides average changes in labor market indicators before and after the crisis.

• Table 4: Lists employment-related crisis measures and their expenditures.

• Table 5: Details social assistance expenditures and beneficiaries.

• Table a1-a4: Offers deeper insights into labor market transitions, income distribution, and crisis impacts across different worker groups.

• Figure 1: Illustrates the long-term low activity rates in Turkey.

• Figure 2: Shows recent trends in labor market indicators from 2006 to 2012.

• Figure 3: Highlights the long transition to work for youth.

• Figure 4: Demonstrates the impact of job informality on productivity.

• Figure 5: Shows a static labor market before the crisis.

• Figure 6: Identifies structural factors behind long-term labor market challenges.

• Figure 7: Depicts the increasing dominance of wage employment, particularly in services.

• Figure 8: Illustrates earnings growth despite productivity and GDP declines.

• Figure 9: Shows the binding minimum wage.

• Figure 10: Highlights the significant increase in minimum wage relative to median wages.

• Figure 11: Compares the distribution of labor market policies across OECD and middle/low-income countries.

• Figure 12: Displays the coverage of unemployment benefits and their response during the crisis in OECD countries.

Conclusion

The document emphasizes the need for Turkey to strengthen its labor market policies to better manage the economic cycle and address the structural jobs challenge. It advocates for more flexible labor markets, improved social protection, and targeted vocational training to enhance the productivity and employability of the workforce.