上海美国商会-大选后调查：对拜登政府更乐观（英文）-2020.11-12页_232kb

报告摘要

Post-Election Survey AmCham Shanghai Summary

Survey Background

The survey was conducted from November 11 to November 15, 2020, and received responses from 124 companies, of which 50 have global revenues exceeding $1 billion. The survey aimed to understand how the outcome of the US election influenced the business outlook of companies operating in China.

Optimism Toward Business in China Under a Biden Administration

62.9% of respondents are more optimistic about doing business in China under a Biden administration.
Only 1.6% are more pessimistic.
The service sector is the most optimistic, with 64% expressing optimism and 9% being highly optimistic.
Retailers show 15% of highly optimistic responses.

Investment Strategy Adjustments

53.2% of respondents do not plan to change their investment strategies in light of the election.
13.7% of respondents plan to increase investment in China.
19.4% have yet to determine their plans.
15% of manufacturers and 15% of service sector companies plan to increase investment.
9% of service sector companies are resuming previously paused investments.

Revenue Expectations for 2020

Respondents are more optimistic about 2020 revenue compared to their expectations in July 2020.
47.6% of respondents now expect revenue growth in 2020 compared to 2019, up from 32.5% in July.
Manufacturers show the most significant improvement, with 55% expecting revenue growth over 2019.

Production Plans in China

82.4% of companies with production capacity in China do not plan to move production offshore in the next three years.
10.3% of producers plan to move more than 20% of their production out of China within three years.

US-China Relations as a Top Concern

72.4% of respondents (excluding "not applicable" responses) indicate that uncertainty about US-China relations is the top concern for global boards re-balancing away from China.

Expected Duration of US-China Trade Tensions

28.2% of respondents believe trade tensions will last one year or less, up from 14.1% in July.
The percentage of respondents expecting indefinite trade tensions increased from 26.9% to 29.8%.
Retailers and service sector companies show a 20% shift toward expecting indefinite resolution of tensions.

Expectation of Trade Restrictions or Tariffs

84.7% of respondents do not expect an increase in trade restrictions or tariffs.
29% of the largest companies expect a somewhat increase in trade restrictions.
34% of the smallest companies expect a potential decrease in trade restrictions.

Expected US Trade Policies Toward China

70.2% of respondents believe the Biden administration will use multilateral pressure in managing trade relations with China.
Only 5.6% expect more tariffs.

Employee Safety Concerns

66.9% of respondents are not concerned about employee safety due to potential exit bans, detentions, or other restrictions.
29% are somewhat concerned, and 4% are very concerned.
Half of the smallest companies are somewhat or very concerned about employee safety.

Impact of Dual Circulation Policy on Foreign Firms

Almost half (48%) of respondents believe it is too early to tell whether their business will benefit from the Dual Circulation policy.
29% of respondents believe they will benefit from the policy.
Retailers and companies with revenue between $1 billion and $5 billion show the most favorable views, with 54% and 41% respectively believing the policy will be beneficial.