布鲁金斯学会-对拜登政府领导下的美国外交政策发表评论（英文）-2020.11-18页_183kb

Brookings Media Call: The Election of Joe Biden Summary

Core Content

The Brookings Media Call on November 9, 2020, focused on the implications of Joe Biden's election as the next U.S. president, particularly on U.S. foreign policy towards China, the Middle East, and Europe. Experts discussed the likely continuity and changes in U.S. policy under Biden, emphasizing the shift from a more adversarial approach to one that balances competition with cooperation where it serves U.S. interests.

Main Points from the Call

U.S.-China Relations

• Continuity of Competition: The Biden administration is expected to maintain a competitive stance against China, particularly in technology, economic, military, and governance issues.
• Rejoining International Agreements: Biden will likely rejoin international agreements like the Paris Accord and the World Health Organization (WHO), which could lead to greater cooperation with China on global challenges.
• Trade Policy: The Phase One trade deal with China is expected to continue, with the Biden team unlikely to impose more tariffs. However, there may be a shift from focusing on numerical targets to addressing specific trade measures.
• Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP): There is potential for the U.S. to rejoin the TPP in the second year of the administration, as a way to work with allies on new trade rules.
• Strategic Engagement: While the U.S. will continue to compete with China, there is an expectation of more structured and frequent diplomatic engagement to address shared concerns and foster cooperation.

Middle East and Iran

• Return to the JCPOA: The Biden administration will prioritize rejoining the Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA), but likely not immediately return to its original terms. An interim agreement may be pursued to rebuild trust and coalition support.
• Sanctions and Diplomacy: There will be a focus on sanctions relief for Iran, but also on addressing the country's grievances, including compensation for economic losses under the Trump administration.
• Bipartisanship Challenges: Rebuilding diplomatic relations with Iran will require some support from the Republican side, as the U.S. needs a durable agreement.
• North Korea Policy: The administration will need to balance Trump's outreach to North Korea with Obama's approach, aiming for a pragmatic deal that verifiably reduces North Korea's nuclear capabilities.

U.S.-Europe Relations

• Shift in European Perception: Europeans have moved away from naivety in transatlantic relations and now expect more realism and strategic alignment from the U.S.
• NATO and Defense Commitments: The U.S. commitment to NATO will likely be reaffirmed, but there is concern that Biden may not push for increased NATO spending beyond the current momentum.
• Strategic Dialogue: There is an expectation for more frequent and structured strategic dialogue between the U.S. and European allies, especially on issues like climate change, trade, and digital regulation.
• Challenges with Europe: Areas of tension include the U.S. focus on domestic threats (e.g., white supremacy) versus Europe's concerns about terrorism, and potential disagreements on trade and digital regulations.

Key Information

• The Biden administration is expected to continue the competitive posture towards China but with a greater emphasis on multilateralism and cooperation on shared global challenges.
• The U.S. will likely rejoin key international agreements and work more closely with allies, especially in Asia and Europe.
• The transition process from Trump to Biden may be prolonged, but experts believe it is manageable and that the U.S. will still be able to pursue its foreign policy agenda.
• The administration may seek to re-engage with Iran through an interim agreement and will need to navigate domestic and international expectations regarding its approach to the Middle East.
• There is a recognition that the U.S. defense budget will face constraints, leading to potential pruning of the military structure rather than a major increase.

Conclusion

The call highlights a transition from a more unilateral and adversarial approach under Trump to one that emphasizes multilateralism, strategic dialogue, and a nuanced balance between competition and cooperation. While the Biden administration is expected to take a more diplomatic and cooperative stance, it will still prioritize national security and maintain a competitive edge in key areas like technology and trade.