2025-06-16-花旗集团-LTIMindtree有限公司（LTIM）_LTIMindtree有限公司（LTIM.BO）模型更新_13页_675kb

报告摘要

Flash Analysis: LTIMindtree Ltd (LTIM.BO)

16 June 2025

Model Update: Citi revised FY26E-27E estimates due to exchange rate changes and operational parameters.
Valuation: Target price revised to Rs4,680 (down from Rs4,135), based on 25x Mar'27 EPS (vs. 23x previously).
Recommendation: Maintains Sell.
Stock Price & Metrics:
- Current Price: Rs5,450.30
- Target Price: Rs4,680
- Expected Share Price Return: -14.1%
- Expected Dividend Yield: 1.5%
- Expected Total Return: -12.7%
- Market Cap: ~Rs1.6 Lakh Cr (~US$18.757 Bn)
Analyst: Surendra Goyal, CFA

Financial Highlights

Earnings (A/E):
- 2024: Net Profit Rs45,821 Cr, EPS Rs154.49, P/E 35.3x
- 2025: Net Profit Rs45,942 Cr (+0.3%), EPS Rs155.03 (+0.3%), P/E 35.2x
- 2026E: Net Profit Rs50,613 Cr (+10.0%), EPS Rs170.61 (+10.0%), P/E 31.9x
- 2027E: Net Profit Rs55,530 Cr (+9.7%), EPS Rs187.18 (+9.7%), P/E 29.1x
Growth: Core NPAT growth projected at ~3% (2024), 0.3% (2025), 10% (2026E), 9.7% (2027E)
Revenue Growth: 7% YoY in 2023-2024, 7% (15 Mar) projected for FY25
PBT Margin: Compressed from 25.0% (2024A) to 21.5% (2025A), projected to improve slightly in subsequent years (21.1% FY26E, 20.7% FY28E)
P/E: Down significantly from 25x (Sep'26 previously) to ~26x in 2027E.
Net Debt: High Net Debt to Equity ratio (~-57% in 2024) projected to increase further negatively.

Valuation

Target price driven by FY27E EPS estimate.
Applied a discount factor compared to a 3-year historical multiple average (29x).
Concerns cited regarding Revenue growth trajectory and the pace of margin improvement.
PE remains the primary valuation metric considered appropriate.

Investment Thesis

Thesis holds: Better-than-expected Deals, Sustained INR Depreciation (helping USD conversion?), Improved Billing Rates could be positive catalysts.
No change in Sell recommendation.

Key Risks