联合国贸发会-新冠疫情与旅游业（英）-2021.6-23页_33mb

Summary of "COVID-19 and Tourism: An Update"

Core Content

This report provides an analysis of the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the tourism sector, with a focus on the global and regional economic consequences of the contraction in tourist arrivals in 2021. It outlines the indirect effects of tourism decline, including impacts on GDP, employment, and supply chain sectors, and discusses policy implications for recovery and future tourism strategies.

Main Points

• Tourism Sector Impact: The tourism sector was severely affected by the pandemic, with international tourist arrivals dropping by 84% in 2020 compared to the previous year. In 2021, the decline continued, with an average global drop of 88%.

• Regional Disparities: The most affected regions include North-East Asia, South-East Asia, Oceania, North Africa, and South Asia, while North America, Western Europe, and the Caribbean were relatively less impacted. The greatest economic burden fell on developing countries, which are more reliant on tourism for income.

• Economic Consequences: A decline in tourism receipts leads to significant indirect losses in GDP due to backward linkages with sectors like agriculture, food and beverage, and transport. The report estimates that tourism-related GDP losses could reach $2.5 trillion in 2021, with total economic losses ranging between $1.7 trillion and $2.4 trillion depending on the scenario.

• Vaccination and Recovery: The rollout of vaccines is a key factor in the recovery of tourism, but uneven vaccination rates across countries have led to asymmetric recovery prospects. Countries with high vaccination rates are expected to recover faster than those with low vaccination rates.

• Labour Market Effects: The decline in tourism has had a significant impact on employment, particularly for unskilled workers, with employment losses estimated at 100–120 million globally. The unskilled labour share is especially high in developing countries, where the impact on GDP is more severe.

• Scenarios for 2021:

  • Scenario 1 (Pessimistic): A 74% reduction in arrivals, similar to 2020.
  • Scenario 2 (Optimistic): A 63% reduction, indicating a partial recovery.
  • Scenario 3 (Uneven Vaccination): A 75% reduction in countries with low vaccination rates and a 37% reduction in those with high vaccination rates.

• Cascading Effects: The reduction in tourism output leads to cascading effects throughout the economy, affecting input demand and wages. In the short run, labour and capital remain unemployed due to market frictions, but re-employment is possible in the longer term.

• Policy Implications:

  • Support for Tourism Recovery: Policies should focus on restoring traveler confidence, coordinating travel restrictions, and facilitating safe travel through vaccination certificates and travel passes.
  • Mitigating Socio-Economic Impacts: Fiscal support is necessary to protect workers and businesses, especially in developing countries, where social safety nets are weak and informality is high.
  • Strategic Adjustment: Governments should consider diversifying their economies and rethinking tourism strategies, as some businesses may not survive the pandemic.

Key Information

• Global Tourism Decline: International tourist arrivals declined by 84% in 2020 and 88% in early 2021.
• GDP Losses: A $1 trillion drop in tourism receipts leads to an estimated $2.5 trillion loss in real GDP.
• Employment Losses: 100–120 million direct tourism jobs are at risk, with unskilled workers being the most affected.
• Vaccination Rates: Vaccination levels vary widely, from below 1% to over 60%, affecting tourism recovery rates.
• Economic Scenarios: The economic loss in 2021 could range from $1.7 trillion to $2.4 trillion, depending on the vaccination and recovery scenario.
• Policy Recommendations:
  • Accelerate global vaccine distribution.
  • Implement coordinated travel policies.
  • Provide fiscal support for tourism sectors.
  • Promote diversification and long-term structural adjustments in tourism-dependent economies.

Conclusion

The tourism sector has been one of the most affected by the pandemic, with severe economic and employment consequences, particularly in developing countries. The recovery is heavily dependent on vaccination rates, travel restrictions, and consumer confidence. Policy actions are crucial to support the sector and mitigate long-term economic damage.