深度-联合国贸发会-新冠疫情对旅游业的打击可能导致全球经济损失4万亿美元（英文）-2021.6-23页_33mb

Summary of "COVID-19 AND TOURISM: AN UPDATE"

Core Content

This report provides an analysis of the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the global tourism sector, particularly focusing on developing countries. It outlines the consequences of the sector's contraction, the role of vaccines in recovery, and the policy implications for governments to support the tourism industry and its workers.

Main Viewpoints

• Tourism as a Key Sector: Tourism is one of the most affected sectors during the pandemic, with international tourist arrivals declining significantly in 2020 and early 2021.
• Economic Consequences: The contraction in tourism has had cascading effects on the global economy, with indirect losses in GDP being up to 2.5 times the direct losses.
• Vaccination and Recovery: The uneven distribution of vaccines across countries plays a critical role in the recovery of tourism. Countries with higher vaccination rates are expected to see a faster rebound.
• Labour Market Impact: The tourism sector employs a large share of unskilled workers, women, and young people, and the loss of tourism receipts leads to significant employment and wage losses.
• Policy Implications: The report emphasizes the need for coordinated vaccine rollouts, fiscal support for affected businesses and workers, and strategic planning for the long-term sustainability of the tourism sector.

Key Information

International Tourist Arrivals Decline

• In 2020, international tourist arrivals fell by 74% compared to the previous year, with a more severe decline of 84% when excluding January and February 2020.
• The most affected regions are North-East Asia, South-East Asia, Oceania, North Africa, and South Asia, while North America, Western Europe, and the Caribbean were less impacted.
• Developing countries have been hit hardest, with tourism contributing significantly to their GDP and employment.

Economic Impact

• A $1 trillion drop in global tourist receipts in 2021 could lead to a $2.5 trillion loss in real GDP, on average.
• Economic losses could range from $1.7 trillion to $2.4 trillion depending on the scenario.
• The indirect effects are more severe than the direct ones, affecting upstream industries such as agriculture, food and beverage, accommodation, and transport.

Scenarios for 2021

• Scenario 1 (Pessimistic): 74% reduction in arrivals, similar to 2020.
• Scenario 2 (Optimistic): 63% reduction in arrivals, indicating partial recovery.
• Scenario 3 (Asymmetric Vaccination): 75% reduction in countries with low vaccination rates, and 37% in those with high vaccination rates.

Labour Market Effects

• The report estimates that 100–120 million direct tourism jobs are at risk.
• Unskilled workers are the most vulnerable, with employment losses ranging from -14.8% to -0.3% across different countries and regions.
• Skilled workers and capital may be re-employed in other sectors, but this is limited by the current economic environment and market frictions.

Policy Recommendations

• Vaccine Rollout Coordination: Accelerating and coordinating vaccine distribution is essential for tourism recovery.
• Fiscal Support: Governments should consider fiscal measures to support the tourism sector, though this may involve borrowing from the future.
• Strategic Diversification: Developing countries reliant on tourism should explore diversifying their economies to reduce vulnerability to future shocks.
• Travel Confidence and Regulations: Rebuilding traveler confidence and harmonizing travel restrictions and health protocols is crucial for the sector's revival.

Conclusion

The tourism sector has suffered immense economic and social consequences due to the pandemic. The report highlights the importance of vaccine distribution, policy support, and strategic adaptation in the recovery process. It also underscores the need for a global and coordinated approach to mitigate the long-term effects on developing economies and their workers.