联合国贸发会-2020-2021年间新冠疫情重创旅游业损失高达4万亿美元（英）-2021.7-23页_33mb

Summary of "COVID-19 AND TOURISM: AN UPDATE"

Core Content

This report analyzes the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the global tourism sector, focusing on the consequences of the massive contraction in tourist arrivals and the role of vaccine distribution in recovery.

Main Points

• Impact on Tourism: The pandemic caused a significant decline in international tourist arrivals, with a 74% drop in 2020 and an 88% decline in early 2021 compared to pre-pandemic levels. The decline was more severe in developing countries, with some experiencing losses of 80-90%.

• Economic Consequences: The contraction in tourism has had indirect effects on the economy, particularly on upstream sectors such as agriculture, food, and beverage, accommodation, and transport. The report estimates that the loss in real GDP could be up to 2.5 times the direct loss in tourism receipts.

• Scenario Analysis: Three scenarios are presented to estimate the economic losses in 2021:

  • Scenario 1: A reduction in arrivals as in 2020 (74% average decline), leading to a potential GDP loss of $2.4 trillion.
  • Scenario 2: A partial recovery with a 63% average decline, resulting in a GDP loss of $1.7 trillion.
  • Scenario 3: An uneven vaccination scenario, where countries with low vaccination rates see a 75% decline and those with high vaccination rates see a 37% decline, leading to a GDP loss of $1.8 trillion.

• Vaccine Rollout Importance: The speed and distribution of vaccines are crucial in restarting global tourism. While vaccines have slowed the spread in some developed countries, many developing nations still face challenges in accessing and distributing vaccines, which hinders recovery.

• Labour Market Effects: The contraction in tourism has led to significant job losses, particularly for unskilled workers. The report estimates that up to 100-120 million direct tourism jobs are at risk. The loss of tourism receipts also has cascading effects on other sectors, including a substantial drop in employment and wages.

• Regional Disparities: The impact of the pandemic on tourism has been uneven across regions. North America, Western Europe, and the Caribbean have been relatively less affected, while North-East Asia, South-East Asia, Oceania, North Africa, and South Asia have experienced the most severe contractions.

• Policy Recommendations:

  1. Rebuilding Confidence: Governments should prioritize vaccine rollouts and coordinate travel restrictions to restore traveler confidence and facilitate the resumption of international travel.
  2. Mitigating Socio-Economic Impacts: Support measures for tourism workers and businesses should focus on protecting livelihoods and providing training to enable workforce reemployment in other sectors.
  3. Strategic Adjustment: Countries should consider diversifying their economies away from tourism, especially those heavily reliant on the sector, to reduce future vulnerabilities.

Key Information

• Global GDP Loss: The indirect economic effects of the tourism contraction could lead to a loss of up to $2.5 trillion in real GDP.
• Tourism Dependency: In many developing countries, tourism accounts for a significant portion of GDP and employment, particularly in small island states like the Maldives.
• Vaccination Rates: The proportion of vaccinated people varies significantly, with some countries reaching over 60% and others less than 1%, affecting the speed of recovery.
• Fiscal Measures: While developed countries have used fiscal measures to support tourism, developing countries often lack the necessary social safety nets, making such support more challenging.
• Future Outlook: Tourism is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels only by 2023 or later, depending on vaccine distribution and traveler confidence.

Conclusion

The pandemic has had a devastating impact on the tourism sector, with significant economic and social consequences, especially for developing countries. The recovery will depend on the global vaccine rollout, the coordination of travel policies, and the rebuilding of traveler confidence. Strategic diversification and support for affected workers and businesses are essential to mitigate long-term impacts.