2023-05-05-国际清算银行-全球紧缩_银行业压力和新兴市场国家的市场弹性_10页_183kb

Summary of BIS Paper No 134: Global Tightening, Banking Stress and Market Resilience in EMEs

This paper analyzes the impact of global monetary tightening and banking stress in advanced economies (AEs) on market functioning in emerging market economies (EMEs). EME markets are highly susceptible to spillovers from AEs, as seen in historical events like the "taper tantrum." Key findings from the 2022-2023 period include the relatively resilient performance of EME markets during the tight monetary cycle, despite challenges such as currency depreciation, increased bond yields, and liquidity strains. Resilience was attributed to factors like domestic policy adjustments, structural reforms (e.g., in Asia), and reduced sensitivity to global risks. The 3-month 2023 banking stress in AEs caused limited spillovers to EMEs, with central bank interventions playing a supportive role. Overall, EME markets demonstrated robustness against global tightening and banking pressures compared to past episodes.

Key Points:

• Spillover channels: Exchange rate movements, capital flows, and balance sheet constraints amplify market vulnerabilities in EMEs.
• Tightening cycle (2022): EME markets faced heightened volatility, currency sell-offs, and liquidity issues but recovered partially due to adaptive policies and prior reforms.
• Banking stress (2023): Market conditions in EMEs remained resilient, with less severe impacts than in the 2020 "dash for cash" episode.
• Resilience factors: Domestic monetary tightening, structural changes, and central bank interventions contributed to EME market stability, ensuring they could withstand global uncertainties.