国际清算银行-全球紧缩、银行业压力和新兴市场国家的市场弹性（英）-2023.4-10页_183kb

Summary of BIS Paper: Global Tightening, Banking Stress, and Market Resilience in EMEs

This paper examines how emerging market economies (EMEs) responded to monetary tightening cycles in advanced economies (AEs) and banking sector stress, focusing on market functioning. The analysis highlights key spillover channels and market developments.

Spillover Channels to Market Functioning

Market functioning depends on liquidity and resilience, exacerbated by vulnerabilities like uncovered short-term foreign-currency borrowing and balance sheet constraints from global crises. Key channels include:

• Exchange rate dynamics, driven by dollar strength, which tightens global funding and increases risk aversion.
• Balance sheet and hedging constraints, which can lead to asset fire sales and liquidity shortages, particularly reinforced in events like the 2022 and 2023 crises.
• Herding and withdrawal behaviors, where investors indiscriminately exit EME markets, amplifying stress through channels like proxy hedging.

Market Developments in the 2022 and 2023 Tightening Cycles

In 2022, EME FX markets saw significant currency depreciation despite lower volatility than peak episodes. Dollar funding strains and bond yields rose sharply, with liquidity deteriorating more gradually than during the 2020 crisis but remaining more precarious than in previous dysfunction. Factors included reduced foreign investment and local market maker capacity.
In 2023, amid US banking stress, spillovers were less severe, with EME dollar funding and bond market liquidity showing resilience, though some strains occurred.

Factors Contributing to Market Resilience

EME resilience stemmed from:

• Domestic policies, such as early tightening in Latin America and structural reforms in Asia, providing flexibility.
• Limited sensitivity to global risks due to low foreign investor participation, which mitigated liquidity shocks.
• Policy interventions in 2022 and 2023, including FX market actions and liquidity support, helped stabilize markets, reducing widespread dysfunction.

Overall, EME markets demonstrated resilience despite global tightening and banking stresses, with policy responses and structural improvements playing key roles in mitigating negative impacts.